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Home / Business

<i>Matthew Lynn:</i> Time for EU to stand-up to Putin

By Matthew Lynn
25 Jul, 2007 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Opinion

KEY POINTS:

Poisonings in London restaurants, expulsions of diplomats, foreign ministers snarling at each other. At this rate, they may have to rebuild Checkpoint Charlie, and dust off those Cold War spy manuals.

Over the last few months, relations between Europe and Russia have taken a turn for the worse.

The European Union should smarten up. It can stop thinking that Russia is emerging as a peaceful European democracy - a kind of Sweden with oil.

And EU politicians in Brussels must think harder about how to deal with an autocratic, suspicious neighbour, and use the trade bloc's leverage more forcefully.

"The EU needs to change its view of Russia," Katinka Barysch, chief economist of the London-based Centre for European Reform, said.

"They saw Russia as evolving toward Western-style democracy and capitalism, as Russia did itself. But you just can't take that view anymore."

Nobody should be under any illusion that ties between the EU and Russia are more strained now than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

The UK has been leading the way.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Gordon Brown expelled four Russian diplomats from London. Politicians in Moscow responded by kicking out four UK officials - precisely the kind of thing that used to happen when the Russians still called each other "comrade," and the British still wore bowler hats.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to extradite ex-KGB agent Andrei Lugovoi, wanted in the UK for the murder of former spy and UK passport holder Alexander Litvinenko in London, was the trigger for the tit-for-tat expulsions.

"We will not tolerate a situation where a British citizen is assassinated on British soil," Brown said last week.

This isn't just about diplomatic strains with the UK Government. Russia has also been blocking a plan to grant independence to Kosovo, much to the EU's annoyance.

Germany has been considering the case for curbs on foreign-controlled funds after Russia expressed an interest in buying a stake in Deutsche Telekom AG.

And Russia has been flexing its muscles over the countries that used to be part of its empire. It banned Polish meat on the grounds of hygiene, while it has been embroiled in a row with Estonia over moving a memorial to Soviet troops in the capital, Tallinn.

There is little sign of goodwill on either side. Maybe it is too early to talk about a new Cold War. At the same time, the EU's policy of promoting shared values with Russia doesn't appear to be working.

The EU needs to accept that Russia is devolving back into an autocracy, with an antagonistic attitude to Europe.

It is no use just encouraging Russia to become more Western.

Instead, the EU needs to be a lot more hard-headed. You deal with bullies by standing up to them.

"The EU needs a clear, interest-based policy towards Russia," said Barysch. "They will respect us much more for that."

Here are four ways for Europe to stand up to Russia.

First, start using European muscle to protect European companies. Oil producers BP and Royal Dutch Shell have been treated disgracefully as Russia seeks to reassert control over its energy assets.

Just like any country, Russia needs outside expertise - and in return it must recognise that it can't just expropriate assets.

Russian companies have been listing their shares in London, so how about telling Russia that access to the UK's capital markets will be cut off unless the rights of British enterprises in Russia are protected?

Two, Russia is a resource-based economy, and Europe is the main market for those resources. There isn't much point in being a massive producer of oil and gas if you haven't got anyone to sell to. So how about using some of that leverage?

Three, make market access conditional. It is fine for companies such as OAO Gazprom to start making acquisitions in Europe. Countries prosper if they are open to foreigners - but they prosper even more when both sides are equally open.

So every time a Russian company proposes making a purchase in Europe, how about demanding a European company is allowed to make an acquisition in Russia in return?

Four, maybe the Group of Eight should be the Group of Seven again. After all, the point of the G8 is to promote co-operation between nations that are broadly signed up to a free-trading global economic system based on democracy and the rule of law.

If Russia isn't willing to adhere to those values then it shouldn't be a member.

The EU must be more realistic about the nation it is dealing with. Europe can co-operate with an assertive Russia if the EU gets real about the challenges it faces.

- BLOOMBERG

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