Fran O'Sullivan: Still stuck in the stone age

Jim Anderton's latest gambit has given rise to a new epithet: The Neandertonthal.

Variously described as an ageing leader (from business or politics), this archetypal New Zealand male - bereft of new ideas, vigour, passion and even testicular fortitude - holds onto his position by astute use of political patronage that ensures all attempts to set up succession planning fail.

This analysis came last week from the left wing of New Zealand politics as the Alliance leader turned his party's chessboard upside down and announced he would lead yet another party at the November election.

In New Zealand business this syndrome has stopped the development of many local companies from the family ownership phase into larger corporate beasts.

Put simply, it's the failure to give up the reins in a timely fashion.

Underlying the Neandertonthal's stratagems is one clear factor. If Anderton had stayed as leader of the Alliance, the party would have forced him to accept changes that would have put the stroppy, intelligent and telegenic MP Laila Harre on a clear path to succeed him after this year's election.

The quick production of a "dirt file" on Harre late last week is proof that the Alliance's defecting "Neandertonthals" fear her emergence.

Nobody is claiming authorship, of course, but a close study of its contents makes it clear that the file has been produced by supporters of the departing MPs - particularly those who support departing Alliance deputy leader Sandra Lee.

The grab bag of allegations has been disputed by Harre and decried by Anderton and Lee. But Harre is the person the seven defecting Alliance MPs know they must tear down.

The legally trained Cabinet minister has sufficient moxie to run rings around most of the dreary crew who have followed Anderton off to the political wilderness.

Unlike some of her former colleagues who have been Class A failures as Cabinet ministers - even without the production of an obvious smear campaign to bring them down - Harre has kept her political nose clean. Hence the need to dredge deep for dirt to ruin her image.

But the political turkeys who have voted for their own early Christmas by following Anderton are the ultimate dreamers.

Let's face it. Why would any thinking New Zealanders give their tick to Anderton's new political party when its leader is expected to retire at the 2005 election?

The left would be far better tossing in its lot with Harre's Alliance - because that is what the party will soon become known as - rather than vote for an Anderton-led party that has yet to even declare what its name will be, let alone its policies.

With an election little more than six months away there is little time to brand a new party.

And if Anderton is happy with things as they are in the Coalition Government, why would voters give a tick to his new show, when they could simply tick the Labour Party box and get the same results?

The front-page photograph on Saturday's Weekend Herald says it all.

Harre bookended by Mana Motuhake leader Willie Jackson on the left and Alliance president Matt McCarten on her right sits enjoying the autumn sunshine at an Auckland cafe on her return from a family holiday in Fiji.

Many have commented on its similarity to the famous 1980 photograph of the "fish and chips brigade". A bunch of vigorous Labour MPs - David Lange, Michael Bassett and Roger Douglas and Mike Moore - were snapped eating fish and chips out of a newspaper wrapping after their plan to topple then leader Sir Wallace "Bill" Rowling failed.

But there are stark differences.

The Labour coup-plotters, including Richard Prebble, now Act's leader, were ultimately able to orchestrate the ascension of Lange into Rowling's shoes, first by getting him into the deputy leader's position, then moving him up into the leader's role after the 1981 election was lost by a hair's breadth.

The Alliance's "latte brigade" face a different political landscape.

Their attempts last year to get Harre into the deputy leadership of the party failed when it was made clear that Anderton would take reprisals if Sandra Lee were pushed out.

Lee had already been pushed out of the leadership of Mana Motuhake by Jackson and her poor performance as a Cabinet minister makes it odds-on that Clark would not have appointed her to a second-term Coalition Cabinet even if the new Anderton-led party scored enough party list votes to get several MPs back into Parliament.

For long-time Anderton watchers there are few surprises.

The autocratic politician has never been great at accepting direct challenge.

What is surprising is the re-rating of his contribution to Government.

Anderton has kept some stability within the Coalition and has been praised for an activist approach.

But an assessment of the real effects on the economy of the regional development "jobs machine", investment in Kiwibank, and the moratorium on GM would probably find that the impact has not been as positive as the political myth-makers would have us believe.

Anderton now has to find new political ground to harrow at election time.

It will not be an easy road for him, particularly when his opponents rightly say he has turned his back on his own party because he could not stomach keeping all his political promises.