Fran O'Sullivan: 2003: Trade, politics and a good sassy question

COMMENT

"Hey Mr President. What about it?"

For those of a certain vintage, the little yarn I am about to relate is not a rerun of that famous portrait of Monica Lewinsky sashaying up to Bill Clinton during his presidential days.

It's another story. But also one of boldness and brassiness.

It is about an Australian-born businesswoman who had the gumption to beard US President George W. Bush at this year's Bangkok Apec meeting.

Her "What about it" was a question on when Bush would answer New Zealand's quest for a free-trade agreement.

The story may even be apocryphal.

But if Wendy Pye was sassy enough to swan up to George Bush and throw the question to him directly, she should be applauded for her straight-from-the-shoulder approach and the opportunity it gave Prime Minister Helen Clark to bypass presidential minders and put New Zealand's case (for a second time) in Bangkok.

This week Clark reported her relationship with the US at a personal level "was fine".

The furore over her ill-considered comments on Al Gore and the Iraq War has long been buried.

"I don't believe they've shut the door to New Zealand," she says, "but they're obviously embroiled in the fine details of the Australian agreement at the moment."

The Government is closely watching the final negotiations on Australia's bid for a free-trade agreement, which will probably get kicked into 2005 if they are not settled in the New Year.





Clark's gaffe did cost her personal brownie points, but the sophisticated manoeuvre she pulled off in London on May Day - assuring British PM Tony Blair of New Zealand's support for the post-Iraq invasion rebuilding - has swung Washington sentiment towards her favour despite a plethora of unsourced negative "media stings" from various US official sources.

Clark's independent foreign policy line has earned New Zealand dividends in other quarters, particularly China.

It is impossible to over-estimate the importance of the breakthrough that has been achieved with this fast-growing nation.

Talks will start in the New Year on a trade and economic framework with China, and it is quite possible that New Zealand will move on to free-trade negotiations with it before talks start with the United States.

Clark has dominated New Zealand politics, but next year should bring a more constestable environment.

The biggest political plus for the centre-right was the election of Don Brash as leader of the National Party.

Brash's easy identification with business is not a surprise.

The former Reserve Bank governor will have his work cut out to make headway against Clark's overwhelming political supremacy.

But he will be a coherent voice in business circles, which favour a less-regulated, more free-wheeling and certainly less-taxed approach.

There are negatives to the right of centre.

The Act Party - normally in the vanguard of free-market evangelism - has become bogged down in a wave of unsavoury fallout from various scandals.

The Donna Awatere Huata affair resonates on two levels - the disturbing Auditor-General's report into the MP's attempt to advocate on her husband's behalf for taxpayer support for various Huata enterprises and, more particularly, Act's over-hasty attempt to push the MP from Parliament before her fraud charges are heard.

This vindictive campaign could blow up in Act's face if Awatere Huata later argues it has conditioned jury sentiment against a fair trial. How does Act square its approach to Awatere Huata with the favoured treatment it metes out to its new parliamentary darling Deborah Coddington?

Coddington's "nothing to do with me" explanation on the fallout from the publishing business she formerly owned jointly with her husband is breath-taking.

These issues might seem small beer, but they will assume greater importance as National considers how quickly it should pal up with Act or whether it should go all out to dominate the right-of-centre spectrum.

The Government's macro-management remains excellent, but there are questions about the direction of micro-reform and the need to step up to the game.

There are still elements of disquiet about the employment-related legislation rushed into Parliament just before Christmas, the foreshore issue and the abolition of the Privy Council.

But a more rigorous opposition should ensure these matters will not be pushed under the carpet.

The guard is also changing in business.

Many of the "Knowledge Wavers" who dominated the February Leadership conference have moved on.



The partnership model still exists.

But the Clark Government is now reaching out to business organisations such as the Chambers of Commerce to broaden its dialogue with the private sector.

Overall, NZ business sentiment is high and the omens for a bright future are good. It is up to business to make the most of it.

I would like to wish all my readers a wonderful break and an excellent 2004. Have a great one.

* Fran O'Sullivan's column returns on Monday, January 19.