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Home / Business

Housing market still subdued despite Official Cash Rate cut

Cameron Smith
By Cameron Smith
Online Business Editor·NZ Herald·
13 Sep, 2024 01:31 AM3 mins to read

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Recent falls in mortgage rates have yet to translate into more activity in the housing market. Photo / Alex Burton

Recent falls in mortgage rates have yet to translate into more activity in the housing market. Photo / Alex Burton

House prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in August while sales reversed an earlier rebound, according to data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

The total number of properties sold nationally in August was 5685, down 5.1% compared with July (5992).

Compared with August 2023 (5725), sales decreased by 0.7%, or by just 40 properties.

The national median price fell by 0.6% year-on-year, from $770,000 to $765,000.

On a monthly basis, the median price rose 1.3% in August when compared with July.

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Excluding Auckland, the national median price increased 1.6% year-on-year from $670,000 to $681,000.

REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market.

“August data shows a level of stability in the market.

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“We saw further signs of a change in market sentiment, with local agents reporting increased confidence in vendors and purchasers, the return of investors and increased activity, particularly at open homes over the last two weeks of August.”

Baird said this change was attributed to falling interest rates.

“However, it would be an overstatement to say that we are at a turning point in the market – we merely have our indicators on. While there is a rise in optimism and confidence, we are hopeful that better times are still ahead.”

In an economic note, ASB economists said housing data remained subdued regardless of the Official Cash Rate cut.

“Data from REINZ showed no early signs of strength in the housing market, despite substantial falls in mortgage rates since mid-July,” ASB said.

“After observing some signs of rebound in July, we thought there was some chance that the housing market would continue to lift in August.”

ASB economists said they expected housing market activity to strengthen over the remainder of 2024, supported by further interest rate cuts.

“As the Reserve Bank has now cut the OCR and signalled more interest-rate cuts to come, we expect there will be more housing market activity over the remainder of 2024 as people increasingly respond to the falls in interest rates.

“However, we have not seen any material changes in the key drivers of house price movements for the time being. We expect little change in overall house prices over 2024 given the large inventory of dwellings still on the market.”

ASB said the market continued to favour buyers, with new listings and inventory levels remaining higher compared to the previous year.

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According to REINZ, the national inventory level increased by 30%, or 6830, in August, from 22,750 to 29,579 year-on-year.

On a monthly basis, inventory levels decreased 3.2%, or 977, from 30,556 in July.

The Reserve Bank’s new forecast rate track suggests the OCR, currently 5.25%, will fall to at least 5% by the end of the year and to at least 4.5% by June next year.

The bank makes its next OCR decision on October 9.

Cameron Smith is an Auckland-based journalist with the Herald business team. He joined the Herald in 2015 and has covered business and sports. He reports on topics including retail, small business, the workplace and macroeconomics.

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