Economists expect GDP data, due Thursday, will show the economy was running hot through the second quarter of the year.
Estimates of growth range from 1.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, for the three months to June 30.
That range implies a strong annual average growth rate of about 4 per cent.
The annual percentage change for the year will be a wild figure, up around 16 per cent (coming off the low baseline of the lockdown-affected quarter last year).
However they land, the numbers will no longer be relevant enough to move interest rate forecasts and markets will likely look through any surprises they throw up, economists say.
But they will provide some insight into the pre-lockdown momentum of the economy and a reminder of what we can achieve as we look for another sharp rebound.
"Overall, we expect the Q2 GDP data to show the economy was on a tear before Delta reared its ugly head," said ANZ senior economist Miles Workman.
"We think that strong momentum going into lockdown will be worth something coming out"
It was clear that the next two quarters would be erratic with a big drop coming due to a fall in GDP due to the current lockdown but hopefully a sharp bounce in the fourth quarter, he said.
"Importantly, provided the fiscal response is just as potent as last time around, we think household incomes will hold up well through this lockdown too."
Westpac chief economist Michael Gordon is one of the most bullish on the second-quarter figure - picking 1.7 per cent.
A strong result would give the market greater confidence of a V-shaped recovery in the fourth quarter as we head out of lockdown.
"Even though the figures from the June quarter GDP may seem stale, they still provide some value in telling us how hot the economy was running before we returned to a nationwide lockdown," Gordon said.
"Going into it, we were already facing capacity pressures due to supply constraints despite strong demand. There is a great degree of confidence that economic activity will again recover sharply coming out of this year's lockdown".
That was in sharp contrast to what was expected during the first lockdown of 2020, he said.
"The expectation was we would see the largest fall of demand in history and that a recovery would take many years. But the successful elimination of Covid, along with highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, went a long way to limiting the shock to demand".
ASB senior economist Jane Turner - picking 1.6 per cent for the quarter - highlighted several factors underpinning the strong growth.
It was partly due to New Zealand's housing boom, she said.
"A chronic housing shortage across NZ has underpinned a surge in housing construction activity. Housing construction also then creates knock-on demand for a wide range of industries for NZ, from manufacturing production to durables goods retail sales."
But household income growth also played a part, supported by a tightening
Retail trade sales growth had remained strong, meanwhile, services indicators also pointed to widespread economic demand, she said.
Transport also likely received a boost in the second quarter, due to the short-lived opening of the transtasman bubble.
Further out, Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr is picking the hit to the economy in the September quarter will be in the order of a 7 per cent decline.
"That's a large drop, by not as severe as last year's 11 per cent fall," he says.
"Businesses have adapted as best as possible to being locked down, and outside of
Auckland restrictions have been eased faster than last year."
Kerr is forecasting a more modest 1.1 per cent second-quarter rise.
But he still sees that as "solid momentum" heading into lockdown, which should help as we come out the other side.
"Recent experience tells us that activity rebounds rapidly when lockdowns are lifted," he said.
"Pent-up demand is unleashed as freedom returns. We are picking a rapid 8.5 per cent quarterly rebound in [the fourth] quarter".
- Coverage of GDP data will be online from 10.45 Thursday.