NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • All Blacks
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Fran O'Sullivan: Housing warning should put PM on red alert

Fran O'Sullivan
By Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business·NZ Herald·
17 Apr, 2015 05:00 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Grant Spencer put the central bank's warning in the context "that an eventual market correction is likely to be disruptive to financial stability and the economy". Photo / Duncan Brown

Grant Spencer put the central bank's warning in the context "that an eventual market correction is likely to be disruptive to financial stability and the economy". Photo / Duncan Brown

Fran O'Sullivan
Opinion by Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business, NZME
Learn more
Failure to heed Reserve Bank’s words on possible crisis plain irresponsible.

When the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank issues a warning that the speculative boom affecting the Auckland housing market must be arrested in case it sparks a financial crisis, the Government should first sit up and take notice - then act.

Grant Spencer put the central bank's warning in the context "that an eventual market correction is likely to be disruptive to financial stability and the economy".

Spencer wants the Government to tackle the preferential tax status that residential property investors have, which has been interpreted as bringing in a capital gains tax.

A brutally designed tax - applied annually and/or retrospectively when a house is sold - could help puncture the boom. Other options include removing tax deductibility for mortgage interest for investors with multiple residential houses; forcing them to hold investments for 10 years or more or lose all tax preferences, or reintroducing commercial interest rates for landlords.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Typically, John Key has resorted to yet more excuses for inaction. A capital gains tax is hard to design, is hideously complex and there are ways around it ... We've heard this refrain for years.

Andrew Little has also backed away from capital gains taxes because they are politically deeply unpopular.

What they should do is show joint leadership. Forget the voters - there's no election until 2017. Instead just get together, form a political accord on a range of immediate actions, and pass legislation.

In truth, the speculative boom has driven massive increases in wealth over the past few years for those who are invested in the Auckland residential housing market either as householders or landlords.

But too many first-home buyers are priced out of the Auckland market; others have absurd debt levels where their equity will be at risk if a market correction occurs, or where they will find it difficult to keep up mortgage payments if interest rates go up (as they will at some stage), or there is a shock to the economy that puts their jobs at risk.

It really has come to a pretty pass that it now takes the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank to forcefully remind the Government of its responsibility. Many in the body politic - including Finance Minister Bill English - have come through the era when politics and bureaucrats used to chant the "monetary policy needs mates" mantra as a reminder to Governments to act responsibly on the fiscal front. They should now reflect that monetary policy also needs mates when it comes to corralling the housing market.

Discover more

Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Exchange of favours for jobs one of the dirty secrets of global diplomacy

27 Mar 04:00 PM
Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Australia, NZ need to find more ways to work together

29 Mar 09:26 PM
Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Plan to can middle-men milking parents

31 Mar 08:57 PM
Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Questionable 'medical' practices not confined to overseas horror stories

03 Apr 04:00 PM

We have had times in New Zealand's history where major crises have roiled the economy.

The Global Financial Crisis was built on the back of the explosion in sub-prime lending and uncontrolled financial engineering.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The New Zealand economy has recovered from the GFC. But the Government has yet to post a Budget surplus and is still accumulating debt.

This reality suggests prudent politicians would shore up New Zealand against the risk of a major market correction which also has big implications for the financial system.

New Zealand has a history of blinkered politicians. Both Key and English were young men when the 1984 devaluation crisis occurred.

But comments from the Prime Minister on Spencer's warning coupled with his blithe dismissal of the fact that English may not now post a Budget surplus in the short term do give rise for concern.

The late Sir Robert Muldoon used to boast that New Zealanders "wouldn't know a deficit if they fell over it".

That was back in the time when a wilful National Prime Minister ran crippling deficits and borrowed to the point where Japanese bankers wanted usurious interest rates and other banks cut credit lines when they were approached for more funds in the lead-up to the 1984 election.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It was a precarious time in our financial history. But the history books show Sir Robert repeatedly ignored his advisers' advice.

From 1982, he was urged by the Reserve Bank and the Treasury to devalue the dollar by at least 15 per cent. The run on the dollar during the election was predicted by Muldoon's advisers.

Labour's Sir Roger Douglas was also well aware of the advice. Back in 1984, it was then Deputy Reserve Bank Governor Roderick Deane who pushed for Government action.

Thirty years on, another Deputy Reserve Bank Governor is warning of a potential crisis. It looks as if history's lessons have not been learned.

Debate on this article is now closed.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Media InsiderUpdated

The lawyer, the horse magazine and ex-TVNZ news chief's evidence – court orders retrial

12 Jun 05:12 PM
Premium
Media Insider

TV3 future in spotlight – could it be a Sky buy?; Shorty St eyes life support again

12 Jun 05:09 PM
Business

10 Kiwis lose $100k each to scams within three months

12 Jun 05:00 PM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
The lawyer, the horse magazine and ex-TVNZ news chief's evidence – court orders retrial

The lawyer, the horse magazine and ex-TVNZ news chief's evidence – court orders retrial

12 Jun 05:12 PM

Defamation jury should not have heard expert evidence of Bill Ralston, says court.

Premium
TV3 future in spotlight – could it be a Sky buy?; Shorty St eyes life support again

TV3 future in spotlight – could it be a Sky buy?; Shorty St eyes life support again

12 Jun 05:09 PM
10 Kiwis lose $100k each to scams within three months

10 Kiwis lose $100k each to scams within three months

12 Jun 05:00 PM
Waikato distillery on mission to create 'iconic' New Zealand whiskies

Waikato distillery on mission to create 'iconic' New Zealand whiskies

12 Jun 05:00 PM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP
search by queryly Advanced Search