Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Now he has jettisoned the Paris Agreement on climate change. Will the World Trade Organisation and the United Nations be next as this presidential wrecking ball carves a new reputation for the US - not as "America First"
Fran O'Sullivan: English must send Trump a message
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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be in New Zealand next week. Picture / Bloomberg
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The Secretary of State - like other Cabinet colleagues and a swathe of top American CEOs - advised Trump not to jettison the climate agreement. But the President was not for turning.
Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett has already affirmed Trump's right to fulfil his election commitments: "It's democracy in action," she said. "He's not doing anything that he didn't say he would do while he was on the campaign trail and the American people have him as their President.
"Although we may differ in things like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the climate change agreement, that doesn't mean that we can't still find alliances in other areas, like with the Five Eyes and other areas of trade, because they're still very important to us."
Frankly, Bennett's suggestion that lobbying Tillerson will be futile - because "Trump has made his mind up" - doesn't really cut it.
English - with Foreign Affairs Minister Gerry Brownlee - does need to strenuously make it clear to Tillerson that what is really at stake is not simply US sovereignty, but America's vital leadership role in maintaining global order.
This is a stance that must be prosecuted by our leaders in each and every meeting with senior US officials, while simultaneously making every strenuous effort - such as with the TPP - to ensure Trump's actions do not destroy the multilateral agreements and institutions that New Zealand depends on.
It is exactly this type of rigorous diplomacy which is essential to ensure the US remains committed to the World Trade Organisation and the United Nations, rather than continuing on an isolationist path.
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Clearly, there is some force to Trump's arguments.
The Paris Agreement is something of a crock as it relies on non-binding commitments.
President Obama did not seek Senate ratification for America's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - as he is required to do under the US constitutional rules which govern America's participation in international treaties - because he was unlikely to get sufficient senators on board to ratify the agreement.
A number of studies - including one by the influential Massachusetts Institute of Technology - have found that even if all 195 signatory nations to the agreement fully comply with their commitments, there would be a reduction in global temperatures of only 0.2C by 2100.
It will be up to US states such as California, businesses and foreign political leaders and others to ensure carbon emissions are lowered, by using technological advances and international co-operation.
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer claims the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will eliminate an "unfair trade barrier", as the accord would have put American workers and businesses at an unfair disadvantage by undercutting their competitiveness in the global economy.
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The real risk is that Trump's actions will result in the US facing carbon tariffs in retaliation from nations like Mexico and Canada, and that this will escalate into a full-on trade war.
Tillerson is unlikely to get an easy ride from Australia, which he will visit first for the annual Ausmin talks before coming to Wellington.
The Lowy Institute yesterday released a poll which shows the majority of Australian adults see global warming as a serious problem and a critical threat to Australia's vital interests which needs to be addressed regardless of costs.
Trump has said he hopes to begin negotiations to "re-enter either the Paris accord or an entirely new transaction".
That is a futile hope in the short term.
