Forsyth Barr knew how to pick 'em

Forsyth Barr viewed Michael Hill International as an undervalued retailer this year. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Big gains for Michael Hill, CBL Corporation and Meridian Energy helped Forsyth Barr to the top of the ladder in the 2016 Brokers picks competition.

Forsyth Barr senior analyst Brian Stewart says its top stock CBL Corporation, a specialist insurance and reinsurance group focused on credit and financial risk, was a relatively new listing and one "we still felt was under-appreciated given most of its earnings were in Europe and because CBL was selling niche insurance products.

"Even now we believe CBL offers good value for risk," Stewart said.

CBL's value rose 66.4 per cent during the game time frame: December 21, 2015 to close on December 16.

Michael Hill was viewed as an undervalued retailer, he said.

"We did a lot of work around the growth opportunities for Michael Hill and in quantifying the risk presented by the tax dispute it had at the time. Subsequently MHJ listed in Australia and settled its tax dispute. The market has since refocused on the growth profile and re-rated the stock to more appropriately reflect this."

Meridian, NZ's largest electricity generator, was intended to balance Forsyth Barr's picks in terms of exposure to growth and yield.

Overall returns were down on the 2015, as you might expect given the more rocky year the NZX has had.

But all but two firms ended in positive territory; a good result given the risky nature of a game where picks are set in stone at a set point in time.

Some big players and popular picks under-performed. In particular market darling F&P Healthcare which was hit by "Trump" concerns about its US operations and finished up just 1 per cent.

Another strong performer in recent years, Ryman Healthcare, under-performed in 2015 rising just 1.3 per cent.

Other strong performers in the 2015 selections included Fletcher Building which gained 54 per cent and helps MSL to second place in the rankings.

Disclaimer:

Readers should recognise that the results of the Brokers Picks are skewed by some features of the game. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five-year term, the results might be different.

The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances.

The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.