"There's always a glimmer of hope," said Chris Hartman, a senior portfolio manager who specialises in convertible arbitrage at Aegon Asset Management.
"With the volatility that can happen inside this stock, the market is clearly saying it's possible for that stock to be at, near, or above US$360."
Indeed, Tesla shares were trading as high as US$376 in December, propelled by blowout third-quarter earnings and a Bloomberg report that China was moving toward cutting its trade-war tariffs on imported US-made cars.
The Palo Alto, California-based company had eased concerns about upcoming debt maturities by posting US$881m in positive free cash flow for the three months ended September 30, adding credence to CEO Musk's assertion that he won't need to raise money to pay off the bonds.
Some analysts still doubt that's plausible. Tesla could end the year with around US$2.6b in cash, including an additional US$2b in outside capital UBS Group AG analyst Colin Langan expects to be raised in 2019. The capital will be used to support the Model 3 ramp, construction of a factory in China, and planned production of the Model Y and Semi in 2020, according to a report Monday. He has a sell rating on the stock, and lowered its price target to US$220 from US$230.
The start of 2019 brought a spate of bad news that's sent Tesla shares down more than 20 per cent from their December high, to about US$296 at Monday's close. Musk announced plans to lay off 7 per cent of Tesla's work force, warning "the road ahead is very difficult" for making its Model 3 sedan more affordable for the masses. The company has cut prices and production on some of its vehicles. And trade tensions with China have yet to improve.
Now, Musk needs to assure investors that Tesla can ramp up production to enable a Model 3 priced at US$35,000 that would still be profitable. The cheapest configuration available so far has cost US$44,000, according to a January 18 blog post.
With the debt maturities looming, analysts will be using Wednesday's report to look at Tesla's cash. It's expected to generate US$411.5m for the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey.
As of September 30, Tesla had around US$3b of cash and equivalents, which would be more than sufficient to cover the US$920m in principal, plus US$1.15m in interest, on the convertible notes. Musk has already said that he plans to pay off the debt rather than refinance it.
Judging by the company's fourth-quarter delivery figures, the company's cash as of the end of 2018 could be in the US$3.5b to US$4b range, said Hitin Anand, an analyst at debt-research firm CreditSights Inc. in New York.
"They have the cash, but would rather have people convert," Anand said by phone. "Will this put them in distress? No. But it won't be ideal."
Regardless, the company will be making some sort of payout. If Tesla's stock rises and investors elect to convert, the automaker plans to settle the maturity with a 50-50 mix of cash and stock, Bloomberg reported last month. Holders have to make their decision two business days prior to maturity, or February 27.
The cash component of that settlement is calculated over a 20-consecutive day trading period leading up to February 26. Each trading day is assigned a value based on a volume weighted average price, or VWAP.
To determine the cash amount, the average of the 20 VWAPs is multiplied by a predetermined conversion ratio of 2.7788, according to bond documents. Tesla would have to pay half of that amount in cash (up to US$500 per US$1,000 bond), while the other half would be settled through stock.
Bond investors seem to be less optimistic that this option will become a reality, as the price of the convertible note has fallen along with the shares. However, it's still trading around par, so all hope is not lost.
