74 locations abroad now open for Kiwis to vote in person, strong winds have whipped up waves in the Cook Strait and 35 confirmed cases of the waterborne parasite illness. Video / NZ Herald
Opinion by Richard Prebble
Richard Prebble is a former Labour Party minister and Act Party leader.
Losing the netball, the rugby and the Broncos downing the Wahs creates a mood for change.
In the electorates, where it is first past the post, Labour will suffer a landslide defeat.
Chris Hipkins had to win the crucial first leaders’ debate. Hipkinsneeded to show that Christopher Luxon was not up to being PM, defend Labour’s record, differentiate himself from Luxon and give Labour supporters a reason to vote. He failed.
Luxon looked more prime ministerial. Instead of defending Labour’s record, Hipkins said next term Labour would do better. Luxon’s crushing reply: Labour has had six years.
Hipkins was animated only when claiming historical discrimination against Māori justified preference today. But most voters agree with Luxon that health and other services should be provided based on our need, not our race.
The quick-fire questions revealed there is little difference between the two leaders. Luxon said he would find a better way to achieve the same objectives.
Not only did Hipkins give no reason to re-elect him, but he put the country to sleep. I was so bored, I put the debate on record and watched the end later. Floating voters will not watch another debate.
Luxon’s “me too” approach is good tactics for defeating Labour in the electorates, but MMP gives us two votes. The Roy Morgan poll says 56 per cent of us think the country is going in the wrong direction. Luxon says he wants to go in the same disastrous direction and promises to get there faster.
It is a huge opportunity for third parties.
Hipkins’ staunch defence of co-governance will help Labour keep its Māori seats. Māori TV electorate polling indicates that the defector from Labour, Meka Whaitiri, will lose her seat to Labour.
Meanwhile, Winston Peters is getting the protest vote- the Billy Te Kahika vote.
Peters cites his experience. But he is like the man who killed his parents and then cites his experience as an orphan. Peters’ experience is that he created this Government he now rails against.
Peters claims he could not pick National in 2017 because Bill English told him in confidence that he was about to be rolled by Judith Collins. Sir Bill says the claim is a “fabrication” and that it indicates Peters “could find a reason to go with Labour again”.
Only those who believed Billy Te Kahika’s conspiracy theories will believe Peters.
NZ First leader Winston Peters speaks at a public meeting at the Remuera Club in Auckland. Photo / Michael Craig
Luxon’s reluctance to phone Peters is understandable. New Zealand First is the ultimate spend-and-bust party. Luxon cannot work with a party that is funding its promises with imaginary money. New Zealand First says it will help to pay for some of its promises by cancelling light rail. But light rail is not in the Government Budget nor the Treasury forecast. Like conspiracy theories, the money is imaginary.
A third party gaining from Hipkins’ debate failure is the Greens. The Greens’ radical socialist manifesto appeals to Labour’s left. The Greens are the free lunch party, saying we can eat the rich. Hipkins has left it too late to point out that wealth taxes have failed everywhere. The Greens’ switch from being an environmental party to radical socialism will, however, cost the party some supporters.
The other big winner from the two Chrises agreeing on almost everything will be Act. Act does represent a change of direction. Alone in Parliament, Act warned that the lockdowns were being continued long after they were effective. Act is the party of no free lunch. Act says borrow-and-spend is not sustainable. No recognised economist has challenged the numbers in Act’s alternative budget.
Act has been consistent in stating that the foundation of a liberal democracy is that all citizens have equal rights.
Party leader David Seymour says the logical consequence of giving Māori preference means that an educated Māori, like himself, will get a hospital operation ahead of the uneducated, poor non-Māori who also struggle to access government services.
These are our MMP choices: Labour, who promise to do better; redistribution from Te Pāti Māori and the Greens; NZ First’s spending once again; a better-managed Labour-lite National Government; or liberal democracy and balanced budgets from Act.
Luxon must know that National’s promise to continue with Labour Government programmes is not sustainable.
Claims that frontline services can be funded by hiring no consultants is a gimmick. It is the same as promising not to use the best advice.
In government, Luxon will be relying on Act to insist on fiscal prudence.
As a country, except for Tāmaki, we have decided what we are going to do with our electorate vote.
Over the next three weeks, we will decide what to do with our party vote. It is that decision that will determine the next Government and our country’s direction.
- Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.
