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Home / Business

Editorial: NZ could soon face a big recessionary hangover after post-Covid party

NZ Herald
13 Oct, 2022 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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Party time: Kiwis are spending more on entertainment and hospitality. But an economic hangover looms.

Party time: Kiwis are spending more on entertainment and hospitality. But an economic hangover looms.

Editorial

Kiwis are in post-Covid party mode and that has kept consumer spending strong.

But we could soon be faced with a big recessionary hangover.

Fresh data this week has shown consumer spending holding firm despite the efforts of the Reserve Bank to cool demand with interest rate hikes.

We've already stopped spending so much on things and started spending more on doing things.

Both the KiwiBank Spending Tracker for the September quarter and the latest StatsNZ card data show entertainment and hospitality leading growth.

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Over the quarter, total services spending expanded by 11 per cent. Total spending on goods fell slightly, declining 0.7 per cent, KiwiBank data showed.

Entertainment spending rose 10 per cent over the September quarter. Spending on sporting events was especially strong, up almost 5 per cent.

Commenting on StatsNZ electronic card data for September, Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod noted that spending in the hospitality sector was now back around pre-pandemic levels.

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It has been boosted by the reopening of the borders and the return of international visitors.

Normally this kind of lift in consumer spending activity would be unambiguous good news for the economy.

But in the current inflationary environment, it could keep the economy running at capacity for longer.

That may ultimately mean the Reserve Bank has to push interest rates higher than currently forecast - putting the economy under even more pressure and potentially costing jobs.

"Now that the borders are open and international tourist dollars are flowing back in, overall demand in the economy is proving to be resilient in the face of interest rate hikes, Ranchhod said.

"And that means the RBNZ still needs to do more to dampen inflation pressures."

Economists now see the official cash rate rising (from its current level of 3.5 per cent ) to between four and 4.75 per cent next year.

If that happens the post-Covid party may well be short-lived.

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Kiwis face an increasingly tough economic outlook with rising interest rates, the increased cost of living, and falling house prices.

This week the International Monetary Fund warned that the world faces an even tougher economic climate in 2023 as interest rates start to bite.

The international agency said global growth will slow next year and warned that 2023 "will feel like a recession" for millions around the world.

In some key areas of the economy, spending is already falling fast.

The KiwiBank data showed housing-related spending continued to fall over the quarter, down 4.5 per cent.

"A third of the spending categories monitored by Kiwibank Economics recorded a drop in the volume of transactions made over the quarter," said KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. "All were concentrated within the discretionary spending space."

A slowdown in consumption was coming and it was "by design" with the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates to achieve that goal, he waned.

"It's needed to cool demand, restore balance in the economy, and ultimately, return the inflation beast to its cave," Kerr said.

It increasingly looks like there is no way around a tough economic slowdown in the coming months.

New Zealanders need to be braced for the economy to take a darker turn.

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