Sociologist Paul Spoonley has warned that we risk losing an outsized proportion of our most skilled and educated workers. It stands to reason that it is those with the best prospects in international job markets that are tempted to go.
We could lay the blame on Covid. There is a case to be made that we are still watching the last vestiges of the pent-up demand from border closures flow through the data.
But as the departures rise and Covid fades into memory, we can no longer hide behind the pandemic effect. There’s no way around the fact that the trend represents a sad indictment of the economic outlook.
Of course, the current Government inherited these economic conditions.
Some argue there was much that was outside the last Government’s control as well. Others lay the blame squarely on Labour’s economic mismanagement.
Regardless of the political debate, we need to address this trend. It won’t be easy and there are some complicating factors.
Paradoxically, we still have a net migration rate running at historical highs.
We gained nearly 100,000 extra people in the year to April.
As grim as it is to contemplate, this weak economy has actually been propped up by population growth.
On the face of it, the Government still faces a challenge to bring that overall net migration rate down.
But this challenge may be resolving itself. Monthly figures show long-term arrivals falling back to pre-Covid levels.
And as the economy stagnates and the job market turns, the number of non-New Zealand citizens departing is also on the rise.
In other words, many recent migrants have decided to cut their losses and go.
With unemployment expected to keep rising and interest rates staying high for some time, we may yet see net migration back into negative territory.
Outside of wild pandemic swings, the country hasn’t experienced a population loss since 2011.
Reversing this trend is tied to economic performance. But convincing young New Zealanders that this country has a prosperous future is about more than just economic statistics.
Many of those statistics still don’t look so bad compared to other nations. When it comes to Australia, wages have always been higher there compared to here.
Bringing Kiwi departures back down to more normal levels will take leadership.
The real challenge for Luxon is to do something he promised explicitly on the campaign trail – he needs to help New Zealand find its mojo.
Luxon needs to sell a long-term vision for New Zealand that young New Zealanders can get behind.
