When will the recession end? What the experts say

Clockwise from top left: Brian Fallow, Cameron Bagrie, Bernard Hickey, Ben Bernanke.

Forecasts about the end of the current recession can vary, but they seem to be unified in one respect - don't expect a let-up anytime soon.

With GDP figures due out Friday, here's a cross-section of recent media coverage of the recession, both in New Zealand and globally.

* Herald economic editor Brian Fallow describes the current recession as not the worst we have seen and relatively mild by international standards.

* The World Bank warns that the effects of the financial crisis, particularly on vulnerable developing nations, are yet to be fully felt.

* For a broader global view, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke discusses the recession, financial rescues and recovery in this 60 Minutes interview, available on YouTube.

* Newstalk ZB reports on the scary numbers of Aucklanders signing up for the dole each week.

* Rodney Dickens, on the other hand, managing director of Strategic Risk Analysis Ltd, says on interest.co.nz that rumours of the death of consumer spending have been greatly exaggerated.

* Financial journalist Bernard Hickey is the author of the Show Me The Money blog on nzherald.co.nz. Here, the editor of banking and finance website interest.co.nz takes a lighter approach to the subject of recession-proofing yourself in his video series 6 recession tips in 60 seconds.

* And there are plenty of stories of individual resilience in recession-wary times, including lots of eye-opening video, in nzherald.co.nz's special feature this month, Surviving the Recession.

WHEN will the recession end? End of 2009? End of 2010? Further out than that? Nobody knows for certain - but there are plenty of opinions.

Even the Prime Minister and his Finance Minister were seen to have varying views on the subject back in April.

Statistics New Zealand is to release GDP data on Friday that will show how the economy fared in the first three months of this year.

It is a certainty that it will show a record fifth quarter of negative growth.

The report is a historical look, sure; but it will also provide indicators to the next twelve months.

Despite a relatively minuscule drop in the issuance of building consents in the last three months, those anxiously looking to an end to the housing price slump can expect no comfort in the immediate future.

ASB expects residential construction to record a large decline in the current quarter, before bottoming out over the second half of the year.

Sales activity is lifting, compared to a year ago, as the Real Estate Institute are quick to point out in their frequent 'market reports', but prices are like that rear tyre with the pin-hole leak: every time you glance at it, it still looks flat, no matter how often you pump it up.

ANZ National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said economists tended to underestimate both troughs and recoveries. "In a recession you tend to accumulate quite a lot of pent-up demand."

Bagrie told Brian Fallow he would not be confident of a decent recovery until he saw sustained improvement in such structural indicators as the current account, savings rates and consumption as a share of GDP.

However, it seems New Zealand can still thank its relative isolation for a diminishing of the worst effects of the global economic meltdown.

As the Herald's economic editor Brian Fallow put it in his column last week, "while it may be valid to describe the global slump as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, it seems the local version is not exceptionally severe."

- NZHERALD.CO.NZ