Top Business predictions for 2010

Cameron Watson makes his predictions for 2010. Photo / Bay of Plenty Times

Cameron Watson is nothing but optimistic in at least one of his top 10 surprises for 2010.

The Craigs Investment Partners private wealth research director has picked New Zealand to win the 2010 Football World Cup, or at least advance to the second round.

"We have to be optimistic. Go the All Whites," he said.

At this time last year, Watson delivered nine surprises for 2009. He scored six out of nine. He was wrong about the currency weakening off a bit. It did for a few months, but had roared back since March.

"We were also wrong in our assumption that we would see material policy changes from the Beehive in 2009.

"The Budget was a series of small steps rather than any dramatic change.

"We perhaps generously gave ourselves a pass for saying the Obama Administration would begin its 'change' programme.

"We argue they have at least 'begun'."

So what is Watson predicting for this year?

1. Equity markets deliver a positive, but single digit, return.

Overseas equities may be helped a little by a weaker dollar, but he expects tepid returns given the subdued economic outlook.

2. Interest rates begin to rise.

The Reserve Bank may start to move the official cash rate up in the second half of 2010 as the economy stabilises.

Bond yields are expected to rise gradually as inflationary pressures start to increase.

3. The New Zealand dollar falls and the US dollar stabilises.

"Frankly, given our better relative economic position compared to many other countries, our currency deserves to be high, but not this high."

Watson believes currency will weaken 5 per cent from current levels.

4. Significant policy changes in New Zealand.

Some say that major policy change is impossible under MMP.

However, with the serious economic challenges facing New Zealand, as well as the abundant opportunities at our fingertips, the Government might decide to introduce material policy changes in areas of tax regulation and expenditure.

5. China revalues the yuan.

The Chinese currency is pegged to the US dollar and many are calling for the Chinese to relax that peg and let the yuan appreciate.

It is argued that action will help the global economy rebalance.

6. Energy reignites as a major investment theme.

Demand for lng, oil and other energy sources remains resilient and is set to grow over time.

Watson sees room for the oil price to move higher and for alternative and renewable energy resources to gain more traction as a result.

7. Corporate activity, IPOs and mergers and acquisitions increase.

The friendlier market environment, combined with shored up balance sheets, may result in an increase in corporate activity across equity markets.

8. Asian markets decouple and outperform.

"While we are worried that some Asian markets look over-priced - especially China - the Asian governments have been able to fund their stimulus packages from reserves rather than by needing to raise massive borrowing levels as the major developed nations have had to."

9. Property prices soften.

Relative to income, house prices remain expensive in New Zealand.

Higher interest rates may see a modest easing in house prices over 2010.

Earnings power rather than potential capital prices will become a more important driver of farm and commercial property prices.

Last but not least -

10. New Zealand wins the Football World Cup - or at least advances to the second round.

- OTAGO DAILY TIMES