KEY POINTS:
A deepening tourism slump has been confirmed in latest accommodation numbers released this morning.
Statistics NZ says there was a four per cent fall in total guest nights in November 2008 - caused mainly by an 8 per cent slide in international guest nights.
There was also a
fall in domestic guest nights, which dropped 1 per cent compared with November in 2007.
These numbers began falling in September last year, after continuous increases since January 2006.
All types of accommodation had a fall, with motels hit hardest - falling 9 per cent in November. Motel guest night numbers have been falling since August 2007 and are now at the lowest level in five years.
Nine of New Zealand's 12 regions saw guest nights fall in November, with the steepest drops in the Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Otago.
The whole tourism sector is bracing for what some feel could be the worst downturn it's ever faced.
Goldman Sachs JBWere director Shamubeel Eaqub said last week that he expected international visitor numbers to fall by 5.3 per cent this year, , followed by a further fall of 0.2 per cent in 2010. Last year they were up 0.9 per cent.
The main influencing factor was the global recession. "With a sharply weaker global growth outlook, arrivals have already taken a hit and our estimates suggest there will be further weakness in coming months."
Tourism Industry Association chief executive Tim Cossar said the predictions held no surprises for the industry. "The projections before Christmas were not dissimilar to this. Everything we have seen indicates this is one of the most severe downturns the industry has faced. We've known for some time that this is not business as usual."
Cossar said feedback from operators over the Christmas holiday period had been relatively positive but showed tourists were booking later than normal. "Travellers are reducing their booking times to two or three weeks before they travel, which increases the uncertainty for tourism operators and makes it harder to predict the impacts of the downturn."
Cossar said Australian and domestic travellers would be crucial in offsetting the fall in international demand.
"They need to be our absolute focus, along with new and emerging markets."
Cossar remained confident that tourism would be one of the first industries in New Zealand to recover from the global downturn.
November Accommodation Data