Retail sales rise but don't get too excited - experts

Economists are wary of reading too much into a higher than expected rise in retail sales in November.

Figures from Statistics New Zealand showed both total sales and core retail sales, which exclude vehicle-related industries, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8 per cent in November.

The rises beat expectations, with the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists being a 0.5 per cent rise in overall retail sales and a 0.2 per cent rise in core retail.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said it was difficult to get carried away with the results when they relied on some unusually big bounces in just a few categories.

Those were mainly the 7.3 per cent spike in the catch-all category of "other retailing" and a 9 per cent leap in liquor sales, while higher petrol prices were also a factor, he said.

The figures could help set the scene for a bigger jump in fourth quarter retail volumes than previously thought, but if that was the case a good part of the bounce might simply reflect consumers enjoying strong price competition among retailers, helped by a strong exchange rate.

"In the end, a bit of a burst in consumer spending, principally fuelled by cheaper imports, does not seem the way to get local production expanding in a strong and sustained manner," Mr Ebert said.

Also, one of the drivers of near-term consumer spending figures, increased optimism in the housing market, may not push on. He was nervous about a noticeable seasonally-adjusted fall in the number of home sales, a key leading indicator.

"It's one of many reasons to remain a little wary on the outlook for consumer spending, even though today's retail figures give confidence that a clear pick-up, in volume terms at least, is coming through for the meantime."

ANZ said the November retail figures suggested consumers may be "starting to come out of their shell".

"It looks as if stronger consumer confidence is finally starting to translate through into actual spending decisions. If so, there is the potential for pent-up demand, not to mention ongoing strong net migration inflows, to see further strong growth in the months to come," ANZ said.

But, while a recovery in retail spending was expected, ANZ struggled to see a return to the kinds of growth rates seen before the recession.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said he continued to expect the pick-up in spending growth would remain gradual. Despite consumer confidence surveys revealing a greater inclination in recent months to buy big ticket items, spending on durable goods had been mixed.

- NZPA