KEY POINTS:
One of the most noticeable aspects of Finance Minister Michael Cullen's pre-Budget speech to the Canterbury Manufacturers Association at lunchtime today was the size of the audience.
Media arriving at the central Christchurch venue momentarily thought they were in the wrong place when they walked in and saw
just 36 table places set.
I will confess that I wasn't in Christchurch for Dr Cullen's corresponding speech last year, but I'm told by those who were that the audience was much larger.
The "phone is off the hook" line that has been uttered by some commentators about Labour in recent months passed the lips of one or two observers here today.
Still, Dr Cullen delivered his speech with typical vigour - even though it felt like one that was designed to lower expectations around next week's Budget.
Click here for the full speech
Dr Cullen offered very little in the way of news in the speech.
Instead he began with an outline of Labour's legacy, how it had lifted lots of children out of poverty, lifted wages for workers and presided over economic growth.
It almost sounded like a farewell.
Then Dr Cullen moved to acknowledge the "very significant" challenges facing the economy, which had manifested themselves in "direct pressure on households" through food and petrol prices.
He emphasised there was nothing the government could do to lower the cost of food or petrol, other than reach for a "gimmick" like cutting GST on those items - something he wouldn't be doing.
On the tax cuts he will unveil next Thursday Dr Cullen's language appeared to suggest we shouldn't be expecting much.
"We know the last thing workers want is an irresponsible tax cut programme that leads to cuts in services or higher interest rates," he said.
Later: "It is true that tax cuts cannot be huge...".
And later still: "Most reasonable people realise that the size of our programme is not just limited by available revenue, but also by inflationary pressures".
He said the Budget would show that Government revenue is down on forecast, and then he left the tax cut argument there.
Outside that, Dr Cullen set about rejecting a series of things that he obviously thinks National would do if it was in his position.
Like cutting support for people when "support is most needed".
One thing Dr Cullen did confirm was that there will be $750 million extra going into health in the next Budget, in line with Labour's previous statements.
And it is clear there will also be a major broadband initiative in the Budget.
But outside that Dr Cullen's speech felt like it wasn't really telling us much. Not much that we didn't know already at least - or that we didn't know he was thinking.
The only thing I can think of to explain the mood of today is that it felt pretty sombre.
Retail sales figures just out this morning paint an ugly picture. Alongside poor job figures last week there was a lot on the minds of the business people in the audience.
I bet a significant number were hoping Labour is deliberately trying to keep expectations down - and that it will over-deliver in a big way next week.
