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Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

OCR provides quite a ride for currency dealers

By Adam Bennett
25 Jan, 2007 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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BNZ currency traders react to the OCR announcement by the Reserve Bank. Photo / Getty Images

BNZ currency traders react to the OCR announcement by the Reserve Bank. Photo / Getty Images

KEY POINTS:

It's a few seconds before 9am when Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard announces his latest decision on interest rates and Bank of New Zealand's Wellington currency dealing room goes quiet momentarily.

"What have we got?" someone asks as the clock ticks over to nine.

"No change!"

"It's unchanged!" the call goes out and the room again sparks into action.

The currency and debt dealers start talking heatedly among themselves and over the phone. On the news that Bollard held the official cash rate at 7.25 per cent, the kiwi has lurched from US69.50c just before the statement to US69.25c and short-term interest rates also fall.

Then things get more interesting.

"There's another report saying they've raised," one dealer calls.

Contrary to the data, the Dow Jones Newswires issue a headline saying the RBNZ has hiked the official cash rate to 7.5 per cent.

"Which is it?"

"What is he doing?

"I'll ring them!" says the bank's head of rates, Charles Roberts, who has a direct line to the Reserve Bank.

"Unchanged. It's definitely unchanged."

The dealers are incredulous.

"Unbelievable!"

With the few moments of confusion past, they again get back to work.

Over the next couple of minutes the room digests the Reserve Bank's accompanying commentary, including this: "In the absence of clear indications of a moderation in housing and domestic demand, it is likely that further policy tightening will be required."

"That line there is critical," says Gavin Lowe, BNZ's debt market manager. "They've put the market on last warning."

The likelihood that Bollard will raise interest rates again - making the New Zealand dollar a more attractive currency for overseas investors - sees the kiwi reverse its earlier fall and start rising.

The kiwi dollar hits a high of US70.20c during the session and closes at US70.02c and half a cent higher against the aussie at A89.80c.

Economists at Goldman Sachs JBWere forecast that the kiwi could climb as high as US73c if Bollard hikes rates again.

Meanwhile, the work continues at the BNZ dealing room with little sign of the histrionics portrayed in the movies. "More stuff's done electronically these days," says Lowe.

"There's less voice, you don't have to scream down various phones to get business done these days and the culture has grown up a bit."

Head of foreign exchange Mike Symonds says the day's announcement was one of the more widely debated and discussed statements in some time. "But ultimately we're now looking towards how the central bank's likely to play it come March."

Five minutes after the announcement the noise, punctuated by the beeping of alerts on trading terminals, is beginning to decrease a little.

Ten minutes after the announcement one of the sales staff is suppressing a yawn.

"As you can see it's all dead now," says head of research Stephen Toplis.

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