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Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

Liam Dann: Will the Reserve Bank cut in October?

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
20 Sep, 2015 09:00 PM5 mins to read

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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Photo / AP

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Photo / AP

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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US hold on rates leaves NZ having to do more work if it wants kiwi to fall further.

No news was not good news when the US Federal Reserve left rates on hold last week.

The financial world had watched with bated breath. The build-up had all the intensity of a major sporting event. The New York Times was running a "countdown to lift off" blog.

Would they or wouldn't they be raising US interest rates for the first time since June 2006.

Would this be the moment the world declared the US economy was back? That the global financial crisis was finally behind us? It wasn't.

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Nothing quite kills a news event like a continuation of the status quo.

But, as the financial markets have digested the news over the past couple of days, it has become clear that the Fed's decision does have some serious implications for the global economy - and New Zealand.

For starters, the timing of the allegedly inevitable rate hike now looks considerably less certain.

Earlier in the year Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen was putting a rate hike quite strongly in this calendar year.

So the debate, even as late as last week, was whether the Fed would move in September, October or December.

But Yellen's comment on Friday, that market volatility and the China slowdown could "restrain US economic activity somewhat" has spooked markets and has some economists picking it will be 2016 before we see rates rise.

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Rather than talk time-frame she indicated that decisions would be driven by economic data - central banker speak for "we'll have to wait and see".

So what does that mean for New Zealand? A change of pace in the US could shift the equations for the Reserve Bank.

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The implications for the dollar were immediate on Friday. It rose. It has settled back a bit since, but essentially while the US stays on hold our dollar will be under less downward pressure.

This weights things towards the Reserve Bank having to do more work at this end if it wants to see the kiwi fall further.

As for the gloomier global outlook, well, China will do what it does. The Fed's view on it - upbeat, gloomy or otherwise - won't change what happens there.

The Reserve Bank will have its view too but, frankly, when it comes to divining the outcome of China's economic slowdown everyone is guessing to some extent.

Based on progress so far it would seem prudent to expect that it will be worse than expected - so to speak.

That seems to be the attitude the US Fed has taken.

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If the decision does have any influence on our Reserve Bank it is likely to push it towards more caution.

Underpinning the Fed's reluctance to move rates now is the persistent lack of inflation as an economic driver.

Debate will go on as to the nature of this phenomenon. Is it a structural change based deep in the mechanics of the modern economy? Or is it just a long cycle from which a recovery to normal conditions is inevitable.

It is relatively easy for commentators to make a call. I'd certainly argue that evidence for a structural change is compelling.

The internet is fast changing the way markets price consumer goods and, increasingly, services.

The New Zealand dollar has fallen almost 30 per cent against the greenback already this year. Where are the big price spikes in imported goods we would normally expect.

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Perhaps they are still to flow through to consumers but, frankly, the prospect of prices for big-screen TVs rising dramatically seems unlikely.

The counter argument to all this goes back to the commodities that underpin modern life.

China's slowdown has seen everything from oil to milk slump in value.

What reason is there to assume commodities have been magically freed from the cycles which have been a phenomenon as long as they have been traded.

Central banks clearly have to remain alert to all possibilities.

Regardless, for however long, inflation remains decidedly absent and continues to negate one of the key reasons central banks have for raising rates.

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Price stability isn't an issue. The risks are deflationary and both here and in the US the central bankers are highly conscious of that risk.

Targets of 2 per cent inflation now require policy that pushes up, not down.

New Zealand's Reserve Bank faces many of the same challenges as the US Fed.

It is just that as we go through this cyclical downturn, the focus is instead on how far rates should fall rather than when they should rise.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stevens, citing improved dairy prices, is now picking the Reserve Bank will hold fire in October.

I'm not so sure.

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Westpac hasn't really brightened its view on the economy, picking the Reserve Bank will have to cut all the way to 2 per cent to shepherd us through this current commodity cycle.

The Reserve Bank is not currently that gloomy long-term but is quite concerned about short-term risk - in particular drought risk from the predicted El Nino summer.

Of all the risks out there, nothing has the power to put New Zealand into recession like a bad drought.

Cutting to 2.5 per cent in October would give the economy a good tail wind into the summer. We're going to need it if it is a dry one.

The fourth cut - making it a full percentage point this year - would buy some time to wait and see on the big variables - dairy prices, drought, China and the US Fed.

And it still leaves room to cut further if things get really grim.

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