NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy / Official Cash Rate

John Kampfner: Asia-led world order emerging from economic turmoil

By John Kampfner
Independent·
5 Dec, 2011 04:30 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Opinion

Politicians and central bankers have long since ditched the stricture - don't spook the markets. From Mervyn King to Angela Merkel, from Mario Draghi to George Osborne, they now compete for the most vivid Armageddon rhetoric.

Voters do not know how to react. Should they spend (an activity once described by Gordon Brown as a patriotic duty)? Or should they do as the Germans do and save?

Should they eat, drink and be merry, or hibernate for six years?

Nobody knows the answer, and individuals will act according to their mood and their circumstance.

With language being devalued as quickly as economies go under, one quote this weekend struck me as particularly chilling.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It came from Australia's Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, as she sought to justify her Government's intention to sell uranium to India. The ruling Labor Party had for years stuck to a ban on sales to a nation that refuses to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Ignore the fact that countries like Germany are scaling back their nuclear commitments; put to one side safety concerns highlighted by the Japanese earthquake. Gillard simply explained: "At this conference we should take a decision in the national interest, a decision about strengthening our strategic partnership with India in this the Asian century."

Why should a country that owns an estimated 40 per cent of the world's uranium be concerned with anything other than national economic and strategic interest?

Commodity-rich states, such as Australia, have weathered the financial storms with relative ease.

China, India and other emerging Asian economies are their main markets. There is no merit in antagonising them. Realpolitik never really disappeared. But in these straitened times, it is back with a vengeance.

Discover more

Opinion

Greg Ansley: Visits leave Aussies giddy with royal love

25 Nov 04:30 PM
World

Gillard to pocket more than US president

30 Nov 08:40 PM
World

Gay debate has Gillard on ropes

02 Dec 04:30 PM
World

Party rifts threaten Gillard's gains

05 Dec 04:30 PM

With its handy US$3 trillion ($3.9 trillion) in foreign exchange reserves, China holds many of the cards and is playing them with increasing astuteness.

At the recent Cannes G20 summit, the Chinese outsmarted the Americans, while at the same time declining the request to bail out indebted European economies.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

For sure, the Chinese economy is set to perform a little worse next year, but the OECD forecast of growth slowing to 8.5 per cent in 2012 (from 9.3 per cent this year), and rising to 9.5 per cent in 2013 puts it on a different planet to the Europeans or Americans.

For some time now, Western governments have fought shy of challenging China on issues of human rights. Visiting leaders might go through the motions, but it is part of agreed choreography that the subject is mentioned for the benefit of a few pesky voters back home, and everyone quickly moves on to discuss trade - and, increasingly now, bailouts.

The genuflection towards Chinese-style "managed democracy" and "authoritarian capitalism" goes beyond politics.

As the euro crisis unfolds, and as Barack Obama continues to grapple with America's joblessness, a number of economists and commentators enviously eye the economic models of the BRIC countries.

After decades of being lectured to by Western governments and international financial institutions, the emerging economic powers are enjoying the moment.

During a meeting with the IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, Brazil's Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, couldn't resist making a dig at her expense:

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"This time, the IMF did not come here bringing money as in the past," Mantega told reporters. "This time it came to ask Brazil to lend it money and I prefer to be a creditor than a debtor."

Lagarde returned the compliment, praising the "marked resilience" of the Brazilian economy, which she said was based around inflation targeting and flexible exchange rates - and most of all fiscal responsibility, unlike the spendthrift southern Europeans.

She pointed out that in the interconnected global economy, no country was protected from Europe's squalls.

At the root of the BRICs' perceived success is the combination of low taxation, flexible labour, a lack of welfare provision and limited or no democratic accountability. If only we could be like them, even just for a week, without having to worry about hidebound voters, we could sort out the mess: so some Western politicians lament, only half in jest.

In Greece and Italy they already have government by technocracy. The next phase of German-led fiscal integration by the Euro 17 will include the requirement to submit future national budgets to Brussels for approval.

The post-1945 European settlement, with strong and universal welfare provision, is now up for grabs.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Specific entitlements may have varied from country to country; they have been challenged from time to time, such as under the Thatcher government. But, in general terms, they have been a source of political, social and economic stability.

As the balance of power shifts eastwards, these assumptions no longer hold sway. Flat taxation is one of the new mantras. Russia was one of the first exponents, with a minuscule 13 per cent marginal rate set in 2001.

Many economists now talk of reducing headline tax rates, insisting that this is the best way of kick-starting the economy (alongside grand infrastructure projects - another Chinese speciality).

With no cash in the bank, tax cuts would require even further public spending cuts over and above those planned in order to reduce the deficit.

For the moment, politicians in the old continent are right to focus on the here and now. On the main stage, Merkel and Sarkozy will try to agree a deal to put to other EU leaders on Friday.

Failure will be clear for all to see; success harder to determine. Across the Channel, in his forlorn cameo role, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron will talk up the life sciences, as part of his exhortation for the UK to use entrepreneurialism to dig its way out of the mire. Meanwhile, his deputy Nick Clegg promises legislation to curb bankers' greed. The Coalition has failed to grapple with the problem seriously after years of Labour's slavish adoration of the banks.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Over in the US, expect little of substance as Obama focuses on staving off the challenge from the eccentric assortment of Republican challengers.

Which brings us back to China: increasingly we will look to Beijing to help sort out our mess. Eventually, it too will play its part, as the long-term decline of consumption in the US and EU will not be in its interests. Watch how the two economic and social models, very gradually, coalesce. Gillard's Asian century is already upon us. Independent

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Official Cash Rate

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM
Interest rates

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM
Premium
Opinion

Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

11 Jun 09:00 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Official Cash Rate

Premium
Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM

The Reserve Bank says no new information was disclosed in the speech.

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

Final big bank drops home loan rates after OCR cut

12 Jun 05:52 AM
Premium
Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

Jenée Tibshraeny: RBNZ's lack of transparency erodes its credibility

11 Jun 09:00 PM
Internal documents reveal why Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor

Internal documents reveal why Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor

10 Jun 11:16 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP