Markets brace for big day of global financial news

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen could move markets if she raises US interest rates. Picture / AP

Thursday is shaping up to be a big day as the New Zealand Government, the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank prepare to make market-moving statements.

For New Zealand, the most important briefing will be the Government's Budget policy statement and the half-year economic and fiscal update.

However, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said a key event would be the Fed's December meeting and the announcement at 8am New Zealand time.

A rate rise of 0.25 per cent, which would take the Fed's funds rate target range to 1.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent was virtually fully priced and there would be little surprise or reaction when it was confirmed.

The meeting would also include an updates summary of economic projections and a press conference by the chairwoman, Janet Yellen. The summary and press conference would be of more interest, he said.

Yellen will leave her post early next year and there will be other changes at the Fed in 2018. The views expressed this week might not be as relevant as usual.

The ECB would meet on Thursday (in the early hours of Friday, New Zealand time) and could be more interesting, Timms said.

"Nobody is expecting any change in policy from the ECB, but they will inevitably surprise us and take a more hawkish tone - especially given how strong the European economy is looking.'"

Germany's IFO business climate survey, which began in 1991, was sitting at an all time high.

The composite performance in manufacturing index rose to 57.5 last month, the highest since April 2011.

The manufacturing PMI was even higher, hitting 60.1. It was the second-highest level the survey had recorded since it began in 1991. The April 2000 reading 17 years ago was the only time it had been higher, he said.

PMIs for December would be released a week earlier than usual because of the looming holiday break. They would give important insights into how the final quarter of the year had finished for the major economies.

Japan would be first to report at 1.30pm on Thursday. Corresponding releases for Europe and the US would follow overnight.

Thursday was also a likely day for the Real Estate Institute to release its monthly figures.

"We will be watching for any signs of a stabilising housing market following a slowdown during recent months amid election uncertainty and tougher credit conditions,'' Timms said.