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Home / Business / Economy

Liam Dann: US economy twisting in the wind

NZ Herald
23 Sep, 2011 05:30 PM6 mins to read

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Opinion

There's a brand-new dance and it goes like this: shift your holding in treasury notes from short to long term.

Then, if you're the United States Federal Reserve and you have enough of them, you might also shift the yield curve of the market and lower the cost of borrowing for long-term debt.

If you didn't already pick the song reference, this week's move, unveiled by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, has been dubbed The Twist.

It's an attempt to stimulate the economy without actually printing any more cash. Already markets have made it clear they don't like it.

At the Nasdaq stock exchange yesterday, the giant walls of digital screens were a patchwork of twinkling red pixels. The only green in sight was on a screen measuring the volatility index.

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Three per cent, 4 per cent down - it was another day of market meltdown across the world.

But still - even with all this selling - signs of real fear or panic are thin on the ground.

On trading floors across New York, noise levels might have been a bit higher than usual but the shopfront staff at the investment banks and exchanges just shrug their shoulders.

Three per cent used to be a big fall; in 2011 it's just another day at the office.

There are several reasons for the latest big sell-off - ongoing woes in Europe and fears of a double-dip recession are ever present. But here in New York the Fed is getting most of the blame.

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The market isn't buying The Twist. There's enormous cynicism about its chances of success, and what the market really wanted was a full-blown QEIII - a third round of treasury note buying with freshly printed cash. What it got was fancy dance steps and the shuffling of some US$400 billion ($512.8 billion) but no new cash from the Federal Reserve.

So the market roller-coaster takes another dip. Down on Wall St, there are barricades around the New York Stock Exchange and increased security as a week-long protest about banking greed makes a statement. But the small and bedraggled crowd of activists is attracting little coverage in the media.

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That's not to say America isn't hurting. But what most Americans are really worried about is jobs. If you lose your job in 21st century America you might lose everything: your home, healthcare, your future.

Latest Census figures show 20 per cent of New Yorkers live below the poverty line. Across the US, unemployment is running at more than 9 per cent, but even that figure is flattering.

If you count the under-employed (with some work but not enough to live on) and those unregistered jobless, then the figure may be more like 16 or 17 per cent, according to some economists' estimates.

To offset the huge number of jobs being lost, the US economy needs to create about 300,000 jobs a month. It's now creating about 70,000.

Unemployment, not market volatility, is hurting Barack Obama's chances of re-election next year.

He desperately needs to speed up the cyclical recovery but, having lost control of the House of Representatives, he hasn't been able to generate cross-party good will to allow him to do this. In fact the Republicans are openly working to ensure he cannot.

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With his latest jobs plan Obama has laid his cards on the table: Tax the rich.

The Republicans have been quick to label it "class war" and the plan has little chance of making it through Congress. Perhaps it will at least make a statement and give Obama something to build his campaign on.

Several media polls last week showed a majority of Americans supported tax increases on incomes over US$1 million. But there are fish hooks and the complicated US electoral system seldom rewards the politics of outright majority.

Take plans to remove tax breaks on buying private jets as an example. Who but the super-rich can afford a Learjet? It sounds like a no-brainer.

Well, over in Kansas those breaks may be keeping a regional economy afloat. Take them away and US billionaires might buy cheaper Brazilian-made jets, factories might close. You can bet that's what Kansas representatives will say in Congress.

Traditionally there have been two ideological paths out of an economic downturn: the short, sharp shock of cuts to balance budgets and the spend now, pay later approach. The former would be recessionary, the latter would throw the country deeper into debt. Right now many non-partisan Americans would be happy to see either one in action.

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But Congress is gridlocked and no fiscal policy solutions - from either end of the political spectrum - have any chance of being enacted in full.

Government fiscal policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy are the two levers the system has at its disposal to steer the economy through a cyclical downturn. Now neither are working, and nobody expects them to any time soon.

Ask a US economist where it all ends and they'll tell you it's just going to take more time, probably years more, for the effects of the 2008 crisis to work through the system.

Some have faith that, with political will, the tools to fix the economy are still there to be used. Others are more cynical, arguing the US economy has deeper structural issues (an ageing population and outmoded education and health systems) which will continue to weigh on growth - even if a cyclical revival can be engineered.

Still, this is America and if it all seems pretty gloomy then it's important to remember Americans themselves seldom spend long wallowing in negativity.

People are often brutally honest in their assessment of the current malaise but they're reluctant to let it shake their faith in the USA as the greatest nation on earth.

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Almost no one here buys the idea that we're witnessing the sunset of US economic dominance.

They simply seem resigned to treading water, letting the ebb and flow of market volatility wash over them and trusting time will somehow heal the economic wounds.

Liam Dann travelled to Washington, Kansas City and New York on the International Visitor Leadership Programme sponsored by the US State Department.

Follow Liam Dann on Twitter:
twitter.com/liamdann

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