NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Liam Dann: Petrol prices only going one way - for now

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
21 May, 2018 11:51 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Petrol prices are set to continue putting strain on motorists for the foreseeable future. Photo/123RF.

Petrol prices are set to continue putting strain on motorists for the foreseeable future. Photo/123RF.

Ok, first the bad news. We've all started to pay at the pump for Donald Trump's tough call on Iran, which sent oil prices spiking above US$70 a barrel at the start of the month.

And it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Since that initial spike barrel prices have continued to rise. Brent crude touched US$80 at the weekend.

READ MORE:
• Petrol prices hit record levels on the road to $2.30 a litre

The machinations of US foreign policy have continued to push it up.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

For example, the resolution of trade tensions with China at the weekend sparked a rally – on relief that the global economy will stay strong.

More tough talk this morning on Iran sanctions is unlikely to help.

So odds are there are more rises to come at the pump in the coming days as the wholesale price rises continue to flow through.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Analysts don't see a reversal anytime soon. The price on futures markets has started to rise.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley is picking oil is on its way for US$90.

There are even some commodity hedge funds starting to place bets that it will trade at prices as high as US$130 by the end of 2020.

Considering that we had all become very used to low oil prices since the big crash of 2014. The return to normalcy was always going to feel like a shock.

Discover more

Business

North-South divide: Why fuel is cheaper in Auckland

22 May 03:13 AM
Business

Comment: Why you shouldn't pay off your mortgage

29 Dec 04:00 PM
Business

Auckland car dealer ordered to pay nearly $8,000

22 May 06:15 AM
Business

Car dealer to pay $41K over Corvette defects

22 May 04:18 AM

In fact, as recently as 11 months ago, Brent crude was worth just US$45 a barrel.

We are facing the prospect of it doubling in 12 months with the added pressure of the kiwi dollar being worth at least 5 per cent less than it was back then.

On top of that, we have new local fuel tax – an 11.5c per litre hike for Aucklanders from July.

And a nationwide tax hike of between 9c and 12c per litre over four years.

So, by all means, bring on a Commerce Commission inquiry into retail pricing. It's good to be sure we're not being ripped off – especially in the regions where the differentials do seem harder to explain.

But get used to paying more for petrol.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Oh wait...what about that good news? Well there's not much.

The rising price also reflects higher demand on the back of a stronger global economy - with upside for New Zealand exporters.

If we had another global financial crisis you can be sure that would crash oil prices – but nobody wants that.

Also, while the rise might politically be bad timing for this Government, fiscally it's all good news.

The higher pump price will lift the GST tax take, giving the Government more headroom to invest back into areas like education and health – or more roads.

Higher prices for carbon-based fuels are also good news for green alternative energies of course. That's important. Maybe the Government could send even a bit more of the tax take back that way.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Just don't hold your breath for oil to run out. New fracking technology has opened up massive reserves of shale oil in North America.

In fact over-production by the US shale oil producers was one of the reasons for the price crash in 2014.

Those guys are kicking back into gear now as the economics become viable again.

This time around they'll have the added momentum of fair political winds, with a carbon loving President in the White House to help them avoid those pesky environmental regulations.

The upside there – though clearly not for anyone sane enough to care about global warming – is that it should keep an upper limit on prices.

In other words, US frackers will increase production as the price rises – making a spike back to US$130 a barrel very much an outside bet.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Opinion

Matthew Hooton: Unlucky Luxon’s popularity hits new low

19 Jun 05:00 PM
GDP

Stronger-than-expected GDP signals no rate cut in July

19 Jun 02:01 AM
Premium
Property

‘Rather irrational’: Multi-millionaire questions Healthy Homes rules

18 Jun 11:00 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Matthew Hooton: Unlucky Luxon’s popularity hits new low

Matthew Hooton: Unlucky Luxon’s popularity hits new low

19 Jun 05:00 PM

OPINION: Even good GDP news suggests the economic recovery has already peaked.

Stronger-than-expected GDP signals no rate cut in July

Stronger-than-expected GDP signals no rate cut in July

19 Jun 02:01 AM
Premium
‘Rather irrational’: Multi-millionaire questions Healthy Homes rules

‘Rather irrational’: Multi-millionaire questions Healthy Homes rules

18 Jun 11:00 PM
Big four power firms near deal to secure Huntly's back-up role

Big four power firms near deal to secure Huntly's back-up role

18 Jun 10:57 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP