NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Liam Dann: Bad news bears in hibernation

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
23 Sep, 2012 09:30 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

"There is stability in the latest forecasts and interest rate track. But stuff will happen." - Alan Bollard. Photo / Supplied

"There is stability in the latest forecasts and interest rate track. But stuff will happen." - Alan Bollard. Photo / Supplied

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Learn more
Talking of economic doom is a hard habit to break but the economy looks set to grow quietly and moderately

Looking through the world news wires for some inspiration it all seems strangely benign - war zones aside.

Certainly across the markets things are calm enough. Europe seems dormant and the US is focused on the presidential election.

In the UK, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, grabbed headlines at the weekend by being uncharacteristically optimistic.

"There is some light at the end of the tunnel. It is an uncertain light ... but we are hopeful," he said of the British economic outlook.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Locally it has been looking very stable - ever so slightly positive, almost.

The GDP figure released last week for the June quarter was 0.6 per cent giving the nation a modest but solid annual growth figure of 2 per cent.

So what now? None of this changes the hard slog faced by many companies and households right now. Nobody is expecting a big acceleration in growth.

But should we relax, take a break from crisis mode?

Well, this column could break either way on that. What do you feel like reading?

Anyone one with half a brain can construct a coherent argument for a range of economic scenarios.

Discover more

Economy

Wall St mixed on gloomy manufacturing data

20 Sep 07:45 PM
Banking and finance

NZ dollar lifts on news of GDP growth

20 Sep 09:05 PM
Business

Retail market healthy, leasing slower

20 Sep 05:30 PM
Aged care

Mary Holm: Shares or property a tricky question

21 Sep 05:30 PM

There is always plenty of evidence out there if you want to make the case for fresh round financial armageddon.

Chinese growth is still slowing, Australia has declared its commodity boom over. Our dollar is still too high for our exporters.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The European debt crisis just needs one political meltdown in one random debt- laden nation to return with renewed vengeance.

And in the US the elections and a fresh round of money printing are obscuring the fact that the nation still hasn't dealt with its debt ceiling problem and will need to break the political deadlock quickly after the election in order to avoid the next default deadline.

So you know, if you really feel like worrying about something there is plenty there.

But it might be that now is a good time to keep focused on the here and now. We have some stability, let's make the most of it.

This is a time of mixed up and conflicting data. So it is probably a time to be thinking on our feet, making decisions based on the facts rather than speculation. That means making decisions more rapidly.

Facts take time to gain their status. That can leave less time to react - so think fast.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Figures like last week's GDP are historic, the June quarter has come and gone, but they are real.

What did it tell us?

For starters it was a good reminder of what a lousy unseasonably wet summer we had. But the subsequent boost in agricultural export earnings now offers some compensation for all those washed out camping holidays.

Rain equals grass growth, equals bumper exports and a GDP boost. It's the same formula that New Zealand has been living off for 100 years.

Remember it was the drought in the summer of 2007/2008 that pushed the country into recession months before the big market meltdown.

Here's hoping for another green summer (although not where I'm camping thanks).

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

So the strong GDP figure was really about the rain.

That and the first signs of the long expected construction surge out of Christchurch - which is hardly something to be thankful for in the grand scheme of things.

But we do get some lucky breaks thanks to our climate - and climate woes of others.

Just as global commodity prices went into a fresh slump off the back of the China slowdown the US and Russia had big droughts. So grain prices have soared. As that is the main feed for cattle in the Northern Hemisphere it flows through to prop up dairy prices.

So while prices for hard commodities like iron and copper are still falling food commodities are bouncing back. Well, dairy is at least.

As dairy production falls in the US it usually means a glut on the beef markets as surplus cattle are sent off to become Quarter Pounders.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But the commodity slowdown is still a big cloud on our horizons.

If Australia really starts hurting then we will to, regardless of dairy. Australia is the country that takes most of our non-dairy exports. It is our biggest trading partner.

And it is more worrying against a backdrop of such a weak global situation.

Europe still has to actually fix the debt mountain with some sort of structural solution.

It has just delayed that and clearly hopes it can be done in an orderly (dare we say, Germanic) fashion.

Oops ... there we go again, slipping back into the comfortable pattern of a gloom- laden economic commentary.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

After more than four years of meltdown mode it becomes a hard habit to break.

Maybe this is just the calm before the next big storm. Best we all keep on with that deleveraging anyway. Probably good idea to drink less and eat more fibre too.

But in the absence of bad news the economy looks set to grow quietly and moderately for a while. That's not a bad place to be.

And if we must gaze into a crystal ball we could do worse than heed the words of outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, a man who has wisdom born of much experience in these matters.

As he told the Business Herald last week: "There is stability in the latest forecasts and interest rate track. But stuff will happen."

Feedback

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Let us know what you think. As part of the new-look Business Herald we hope to regularly run your letters and comments. We also want to hear what you think about the new section. Send your feedback to business@nzherald.co.nz.
Letters for publication should include a name and address and should not exceed 200 words.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Economy

Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

18 Jun 05:17 AM
Premium
Currency

Kiwi dollar rises 7.5% as US dollar wanes under global shifts

18 Jun 03:59 AM
Business|economy

Back-pocket boost: Households could receive hundreds of dollars in extra disposable income

17 Jun 11:35 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

Liam Dann: 'Brick wall' – why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

18 Jun 05:17 AM

ANALYSIS: Is the economy getting better or worse? It should be a simple question.

Premium
Kiwi dollar rises 7.5% as US dollar wanes under global shifts

Kiwi dollar rises 7.5% as US dollar wanes under global shifts

18 Jun 03:59 AM
Back-pocket boost: Households could receive hundreds of dollars in extra disposable income

Back-pocket boost: Households could receive hundreds of dollars in extra disposable income

17 Jun 11:35 PM
Premium
Richard Prebble: How Labour can revive its fortunes with fresh leadership

Richard Prebble: How Labour can revive its fortunes with fresh leadership

17 Jun 05:00 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP