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Home / Business / Economy

It's crunch time for the economy and Bill English

NZ Herald
23 Aug, 2015 05:30 PM4 mins to read

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Finance Minister Bill English expects to see GDP growth in excess of 2 per cent. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Finance Minister Bill English expects to see GDP growth in excess of 2 per cent. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Opinion
National's economic management about to be put to test amid talk of recession.

It is crunch time for the economy, crunch time for Bill English and his "steady as she goes" economic plan.

We're about to find out if the New Zealand economy is robust enough to keep growing through the bottom of a commodity cycle.

National's economic management is about to be put to the test. Things are about to get interesting.

With all the gloom about dairy prices there is no shortage of critics calling an end to golden economic weather.

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Andrew Little and Winston Peters say the wheels are falling off. They are calling National's economic policy a failure.

On Friday First NZ Capital director of Economics and Strategy Craig Green warned of a 25 to 30 per cent chance that we slip into recession.

Even normally optimistic business leaders have expressed concerns about the apparent lack of policy direction as we head into more challenging conditions.

The Herald's Mood of the Boardroom survey found 75 per cent of business leaders wanted to see a Plan B from this Government.

But Bill English is unfazed. The point, he argues, is not to swap from one plan to another when the going gets tough. The point is to stick to a sensible, long-term plan that builds flexibility into the economy so that it self corrects when conditions change.

English is unashamedly a fan of running an economy that has no choice but to respond to the price signals of the market.

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You want to see diversification? Well, a dairy slump is just the ticket.

Now watch as the dollar falls and tourism booms. See how our fledgling tech and manufacturing sector, lean and mean after years of battling the exchange rate, suddenly blossoms.

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Let's hope so. Even if these sectors do kick up a gear it will still be a struggle to replace the hole in the accounts that the slump in dairy returns will leave.

English told the Mood of the Boardroom breakfast crowd he's still expecting to see GDP growth in excess of 2 per cent.

That's not a boom but it's a long way from recession.

The reality is that if New Zealand can get through this commodity slump without dipping below annual GDP growth of 2 per cent then that would be a fantastic result.

ANZ and Westpac are picking low points of 1.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively. Even these figures would represent a solid result for a country which has historically had its fortunes wedded to agricultural commodities.

Regardless, it is going to be a worrying period. Even if dairy prices have bottomed out (here's hoping) we will be vulnerable to downside risks around the Australian and Chinese economies.

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Worst of all is the weather. Nothing tips the New Zealand economy over like drought. We have had a good run of grass-growing summers which have ironically resulted in bumper dairy production and added to pricing woes.

The Opposition has already called for the Government to loosen the purse strings and stimulate the economy.

But there is a risk in going too early with fiscal stimulus.

In Australia in 2009 Kevin Rudd unleashed $9 billion worth of economic stimulus to combat the global financial crisis at a time when commodity prices may well have seen the country through with minimal pain regardless.

The country avoided recession but now that mineral prices have really slumped there isn't much in the tank.

Back here interest rates are already on their way back to record lows. If things turn really pear-shaped then it is nice to know that the Government will still have some fiscal firepower up its sleeve.

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There is scope to kiss goodbye to the (nearly, not quite) surplus and restoke the economic engine.

English could bring forward some of that crucial infrastructure spend or cut some taxes to inject cash back into the economy.

It is safe to say that he has too much political capital tied up in the surplus plan to move early.

But let's hope he's prepared to do what it takes to avoid recession if it comes to that.

A stalled economy is never good but what we've seen around the world is that economies that stall in these deflationary times can get dangerously mired. Just look at Japan, or even the US.

New Zealand can't afford to stand still for long. We've got to keep transforming this economy.

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