Is that the sound of bleating from down on the farm?

As you absorb the view of a buzzing Viaduct Harbour from your fourth-floor office, you might be fretting about property prices or the value of the kiwi dollar, or even the prospect of road tolls.

But your real worry should be the commodities market, where experts say prices are dropping and city dwellers will feel the sting soon enough.

Battered by the buoyant exchange rate, farmers and growers are tightening their belts as their income shrinks.

And when the country's 80,000 farmers and growers stop spending, everybody suffers.

"There are so many industries exposed to the primary sector that if its spending slows, the negative flow-on effects to all the other industries are pretty big," says ABN Amro Craigs analyst Mark Lister.

"Their returns are being diluted by the combination of a high and relatively constant exchange rate and falling commodity prices, which translates to lower spending in that sector."

As many economists have noted, how the sector fares over the coming months could well be the difference between a hard and soft landing.

But if the pipfruit industry is any indication, it's not looking good.

"The impact of last year's poor returns will be felt around the country. Growers had to increase their overdrafts to get fruit out, so they're not going to be going into town and buying new cars," says Pipfruit New Zealand chief executive Peter Beaven.

"Market conditions are going to be similar to last year. There'll definitely be less money moving around."

Crop volumes fell from 18 million cases last year to 15.5 million cases this year.

Salvation could be in the form of several new types of pear coming onto the market in the next few weeks, including an exclusive Asian-European pear cross.

"We're hoping they'll rejuvenate the pear market," says Beaven.

Meanwhile, Southland farmers are also being tight with their money. David Rose, Federated Farmers Southland president, says farmers are getting hit from all areas.

"Crown spending is up and all our rates have increased; farm costs are rising as well.

"Farmers are putting away their chequebooks. It will take time but [the lack of spending] will eventually flow through to cities. And if we haven't got the income, we can't pay our tax, and that affects Government spending."

On a scale of one to 10, one being the lowest, the sheep farmers' situation is about a three, says Rose. Beef and dairy are about five.

The average Southland sheep farmer was down about $35,000 on lamb sales last year, he says. The average Southland dairy farmer was down about $85,840 for a 400-cow herd (the average herd for Southland).

"With no export dollars coming in it's like running in overdraft, and you can't do that forever."

Some are also blaming the cost of complying with ACC and Holidays Act provisions, with one farmer estimating it has taken about $3 off each lamb he has sold.

Warm weather hasn't helped the meat export industry either. Less grass means stock is slower coming onto the market, says Affco chief executive Tony Egan.

"My advice to farmers is to take a realistic approach - historical prices are no longer achievable and we need to be cautious in regard to replacement stock and land capital."

On the flipside, the past few years have seen farmers and growers take advantage of the strong kiwi dollar and spend more on big ticket items from overseas.

Meanwhile, many farmers have been trying to keep stock numbers up, hoping for better returns on lamb and beef over wool and dairy products.

Forsyth Barr rural analyst John Cairns says the decline in prices was inevitable.

"We've got to put it in perspective. Some things have been tracking around at historical highs so it was inevitable they'd drop."