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Home / Business / Economy

<i>Paran Balakrishnan</i>: Promised land beckons where the bulls run all the time

By Paran Balakrishnan
2 Jul, 2007 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

It's a sprawling suburb dotted with futuristic glass and concrete office blocks but without public transport of any sort. The high-rise luxury apartments and the multi-storey office blocks are growing higgledy-piggledy without the slightest bow towards urban planning.

Gurgaon, the giant suburb of India's capital New Delhi, has
been called the Pudong of India.

Like Pudong, which was once filled with rice fields on the other side of the Huangpu River facing Shanghai's famous Bund, Gurgaon is a symbol of explosive growth and a middle class that's growing exponentially.

Gurgaon was a cluster of villages 30 years ago when K.P. Singh, the chief of developer DLF, took a king-sized bet and began buying up thousands of acres of sugar-growing fields and tiny homes in the district. Now Singh has cashed in on his far-sighted land-buying spree - holding the world's fourth-largest IPO this year that has raked in US$2.24 billion ($2.89 billion).

The DLF offering was followed a week later by ICICI Bank which held an even more ambitious US$4.9 billion FPO (follow-on public issue).

Other cash-hungry corporations are also on their way to market. It is reckoned that in the next six months about US$10 billion will be raised through IPOs and FPOs. That compares with about US$5 billion raised by similar issues in 2006-07. And over 400 companies are waiting in the wings to raise an estimated US$30 billion. "I've never seen a pipeline of issues like this," says Prithvi Haldea of Prime Database which tracks the capital markets.

Back in the 90s, Indian merchant bankers and corporate chiefs watched with wonder as countries like China forged ahead with billion-dollar mega-issues. Indian companies never passed the US$750 million mark.

Now the scale of the action is changing. Indian companies have seen the Promised Land, or think they have. They have hefty reserves and they are filling their war chests to get ready for a future of blazing growth.

All this is a marked turnaround from early this year. At that time, the corporate world was wondering if India's 9 per cent growth party was about to come to a sudden stop. Inflation had rocketed to nearly 7 per cent and the country's central bank had responded by slamming on the brakes and hiking interest rates to 7.75 per cent. As another inflation-fighting measure aimed at making imports less costly, the Indian rupee was allowed to rise and has climbed 8.5 per cent since the start of the year.

These moves have had an impact. Auto and two-wheeler sales are down and fewer people are applying for mortgages. Also, the all important software companies are feeling the pinch because the rising rupee is neutralising the benefits of outsourcing and small businesses with customers abroad are under strain.

But it is now looking as if everyone underestimated the strength and momentum of the Indian economy. Four months down the road, the stock market closed last Friday 73 points short of its all-time high. What is more, the market absorbed the DLF and the ICICI offers without pausing for breath.

We have seen that the market has huge depth, says Haldea.

As they look into the future everyone's looking for cash to fund their bountiful dreams of prosperity and endless growth. So you have real estate developers who are putting together the foundation for mega-issues and electricity companies that are hoping to power their multi-megawatt visions with public money.

Then there are the banks which are suddenly discovering they need more capital if they want to bankroll growth. That's why large banks such as ICICI are raising money once again and others like UTI Bank and the State Bank of India, the country's largest bank, are about to follow suit.

Keep in mind that ICBC, the second largest Chinese bank, has a higher asset base than the entire Indian banking sector so it is obvious why India's banks need to bulk up and build muscle fast.

There are other reasons for the renewed optimism. Inflation, which hit a more than two-year high of 6.73 per cent this year has fallen back to a much more respectable 4.03 per cent. That has eased fears of another rate rise though the central bank governor is making aggressive noises and saying he wants inflation down to 3 per cent.

The foot may be off the interest rate pedal, says Deepak Lalwani, director, Astaire & Partners, a London-based brokerage house.

But despite rate rises, the Indian stock market has defied expectations, rising more than 400 per cent in the last four years and most brokers reckon it would need a cooling off phase this year. Instead, it has barrelled on and sectors like banks have climbed steeply in recent months.

Such conditions are perfect for raising more money and every cash-hungry corporation is aware of that. Haldea points out that India's markets went into the deep freeze for almost seven years between 1995 and 2002. As a result there's still pent-up demand for capital.

"This is just the beginning of a bull run," Haldea said.

Perhaps everyone is being a shade optimistic.

But for the time being the Indian economic story is looking good and lots of corporations are rushing to market to cash in.

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