NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Interest rates tipped to rise sooner as GDP data shows economy running hot

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
17 Jun, 2021 05:34 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

The big first quarter surge in economic activity means rates could rise sooner. Photo / Getty Images

The big first quarter surge in economic activity means rates could rise sooner. Photo / Getty Images

The economy is running hot.

It is so hot that economists are moving forward their expectations for interest rate hikes as inflation risk grows.

Essentially the economy has burned off recession fears and faces a new set of challenges as parts of the economy boom.

For businesses trying to hire staff and keep up with customer demand this will come as no surprise.

But GDP data for the first quarter of the year has confirmed what we all expected - and then exceeded those expectations by some margin.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The quarterly growth figure of 1.6 per cent was double that of the most optimistic market economists.

While the grim second quarter of 2020 still leaves average annual growth in negative territory, on year on year measure we are 2.4 per cent ahead of where we started as the pandemic hit.

The strength of the numbers already has economists forecasting the Reserve Bank may have to bring forward interest rate hikes.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The central bank, which had a fall of 0.6 per cent in its forecasts, had signalled rate hikes from the middle of next year.

ANZ today moved its pick to next February.

Discover more

New Zealand

Auckland business owners protest against CRL disruptions as 'debts are mounting'

17 Jun 03:01 AM

ASB had been expecting hikes in May but today said the economic strength now skewed the risk to an earlier move.

While the Reserve Bank's forecast now looks overly cautious, most market economist had anticipated that strong consumer spending through the summer would keep growth in positive territory.

It did, but other sectors also outperformed expectations.

"Households spent more on accommodation, eating out, and purchasing big-ticket items such as furniture, audiovisual equipment, and motor vehicles," StatsNZ said.

Construction bounced back sharply to record 6.6 per cent growth - after a fall of 8.4 per cent in the December 2020 quarter.

"Construction services, heavy and civil engineering construction, and residential building construction all contributed strongly," StatsNZ said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"The construction industry has returned to near-record levels of activity with historically high volumes of residential building work contributing to overall activity".

The solid rise in activity meant that New Zealand easily avoided a second technical recession, said Ben Udy at Capital Economics in Sydney.

"We expect GDP to continue its rebound over the rest of 2021".

Once we move through the seasonal impact of the international tourist season (or lack of it), strong trade figures are expected to add momentum to the recovery.

KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr described the result as remarkable.

"You'd be forgiven for thinking that [1.6 per cent] was the annual rate. Nope. The annual rate was 2.4 per cent - compared to consensus expectations of 0.9 per cent," he said.

"The report was stronger than expected – pretty much across the board. And the economy has confidently returned to pre-Covid levels."

That figure of 2.4 per cent growth (year on year) puts us ahead of the Australia, the US, UK, Canada and the OECD average.

ANZ's Sharon Zollner and Miles Workman were more circumspect, emphasising that some serious structural issues are lurking beneath the topline economic results.

But they recognised that growth figures showed "the recovery in domestic demand has been nothing short of spectacular".

They are now forecasting that the Reserve Bank will have to move to lift interest rates as soon as February.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner. Photo / NZME
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner. Photo / NZME

The view that track for rate hikes is creeping forward was reflected in the kiwi dollar which rose almost half a cent on the news.

Almost no one - even those who deemed New Zealand's hardline pandemic response crucial for public safety - anticipated that the economy would withstand it so well.

We can now draw a line across the first financial year of the pandemic.

The recessionary fears of soaring unemployment and economic stagnation have proved unfounded.

The Government and Reserve Bank did what was required. We survived and we thrived.

New Zealand faces a new set of challenges as the world moves into recovery mode.

As ANZ's Zollner notes, New Zealand has still suffered a big negative income shock.

"A hangover awaits, somewhere down the track," she says.

"But for now, with inflation pressures building, unless the picture changes, the RBNZ will need to flip from one potential regret to the other, rather sooner than they are currently forecasting".

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Stock takes

Stock Takes: In play - more firms eyed for takeover as economy remains sluggish

19 Jun 09:00 PM
World

Trump's policies are reshaping global financial dynamics

19 Jun 07:44 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM

This recovery is making us sweat, but that might be a good thing in the long run.

Premium
Stock Takes: In play - more firms eyed for takeover as economy remains sluggish

Stock Takes: In play - more firms eyed for takeover as economy remains sluggish

19 Jun 09:00 PM
Trump's policies are reshaping global financial dynamics

Trump's policies are reshaping global financial dynamics

19 Jun 07:44 PM
Premium
Matthew Hooton: Unlucky Luxon’s popularity hits new low

Matthew Hooton: Unlucky Luxon’s popularity hits new low

19 Jun 05:00 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP