Designed by committee and lacking a bold vision, it seems set to be a three-star effort
Like an over-hyped Hollywood movie, next week's Budget faces an uphill struggle to do anything but underwhelm.
Maybe it will all look more exciting in 3D but the teasers don't suggest we'll see any of the ground-breaking special effects needed to transform an economy.
Perhaps the Government will go
down the art-house path - surprise us with an austere European script. But that seems unlikely too.
Designed by committee, heavily test-marketed and lacking a bold directorial vision, it looks set to be a three-star, "might wait for the DVD", date movie of a Budget.
We pretty much know what we are going to get: some tinkering with tax - a GST rise, the promise of some personal rate cuts and changes to depreciation rules for property investment. That's all supposed be fiscally neutral.
So while the changes will make some people a bit grumpy and some a bit happy, they won't materially address the deficit or dramatically influence the investment habits behind the nation's worrying private debt levels.
Already announced is a new-look R&D spending programme which weights public investment more heavily towards our larger, more commercially successful companies.
And this week the tourism industry was pretty chuffed to get $30 million extra for marketing - a modest sum that they will need to use wisely to win back visitors from recession-ravaged places like the United States and Britain.
There's nothing wrong with any of that - it's just not particularly exciting. There is also likely to be more slashing and burning than we have seen thus far.
But cuts are likely to be to bureaucratic headcounts, departmental budgets and small-ticket social programmes. They will appease those on the right who feel Wellington is still bloated after nine years of Labour rule but they won't be fiscally material.
John Key and Bill English will pitch Thursday's Budget as a finely balanced document which keeps a focus on expenditure while shifting policy in favour of the productive end of the economy.
Based on what we know so far, it won't do quite enough of either to earn a place in the pantheon of great Budgets.
It will be argued there was little room for radical moves. It is true the Government is still constrained by the global situation.
It can't afford to make the kind of tax changes many in the business community want because that would hit the accounts too hard in the short term - even if there is a good case for change which generates longer-term economic gain.
Likewise it will be argued that more cuts to state spending could push the country back towards recession. They would also only address public debt - which at less than 30 per cent of GDP isn't too bad in global terms.
We aren't quite on track to be the Greece of the South Pacific yet.
However New Zealand's big problem is private debt. Our total gross external debt (public and private combined) is more like 130 per cent of GDP. Much of that is money we owe Australian banks for our homes.
Which brings us back to the need for bolder policies to tackle the national property obsession and direct capital towards wealth-generating businesses.
This week departing AgResearch boss Andy West made a last-ditch plea for the Government to look at measures like compulsory superannuation and a capital gains tax on investment property. We already know that nobody in the Beehive is listening. Those ideas remain stuck in the too-hard basket.
However much the Government argues it is constrained by legitimate economic concerns, there remains a strong feeling - particularly within the business community - that it has been too timid for too long.
This Budget offers its best chance for doing something bold in the current electoral term.
Last year the economic outlook was even worse. Government spending was the only thing keeping things ticking over. Next year it is election time again so the pressure will be on for a feel-good Budget to bolster support.
If ever the Government was going to stop worrying about the polls and start worrying about the fundamental problems with the economy, this was the time. Perhaps there will still be some surprises in Thursday's big show, some final twist in the script.
Let's hope so.
www.twitter.com/liamdann
