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Home / Business / Economy

<i>John Armstrong:</i> Govt balancing confidence with reality

Herald online
4 Feb, 2009 01:25 AM3 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

Today's $480 million small and medium business "relief package" should stifle much of the hue and cry that the Government has been sitting on its hands in the face of the worsening economic outlook. But it will likely only silence the critics temporarily.

The package contains a host of largely uncontroversial measures designed to ease the prime pressure on any business in a downturn - problems with cash flow.

The initiatives will accordingly be warmly welcomed by the private sector.

Alongside yesterday's announced changes to the Resource Management Act, they show National putting its money (or rather the taxpayers' money in this case) where its mouth has long been.

However, the first real test of just how radical, innovative and imaginative the Government's behind-the-scenes thinking has been on ameliorating the impact of recession comes next week when the Prime Minister unveils details of "fast-tracked" Government building projects to keep people in work as the international crisis really hits home.

The Prime Minister is using a "rolling maul"-style approach to the crisis which sees the Government staggering its response with an ongoing series of announcements.

Such an approach enables the Government to retain policy flexibility, while not firing all its policy bullets at once and leaving some ammunition for when the recession really bites and the political pressure is really ramped up.

But it also leaves the Government vulnerable to calls it should be doing more now.

It is unkind fate that Finance Minister Bill English should be crossing the Tasman for annual talks with his Australian counterpart just as Kevin Rudd's Government has unveiled a whopping $53 billion stimulus package for the Australian economy on the top of the $30 billion already committed to pump-priming.

The inevitable comparisons with Australia's fiscal stimulus underlines the need for the National Government here to ensure it is adequately communicating what it is doing and why.

It is a crucial feature of John Key's speech today that it does just that. It runs through announcements to date and announcements to come. It gives a clear picture of where the Government is going.

The Prime Minister stressed the Government was open-minded on future steps it might take as economic conditions worsen over the next few months.

However, he also emphasised National was not going to be panicked into taking short-term measures which undercut its medium to long-term economic policy initiatives which are designed to speed growth once the economy comes out of recession.

And he underlined the limits on how much money National could devote to short-term relief without debt levels becoming excessive and prompting a damaging downgrade of New Zealand's international credit rating.

It was all about striking a balance, one of the most difficult ones being telling it like it is without talking down the economy at the same time.

As the Prime Minister put it, there needs to be a dollop of confidence about New Zealand's prospects to go with the necessary doses of reality.

Key's job is to project the confidence while his finance minister finds the means of coping with the reality.

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