KEY POINTS:
Green is the brand of New Zealand. Green food. Green environment. Green tourism. Green technology.
That is the leitmotif that should define New Zealand's economic future, says Long Yongtu, whose analysis captivated people from the Prime Minister down at this week's Action Asia business summit.
Helen Clark would
have assimilated Long's viewpoint as proof positive her Government is on the right track with its ambition to be the world's "first carbon neutral country".
The summit, and its accompanying work programme, is an Asia-NZ initiative that promoters hope will hasten this country's business linkages with Asia and pave the way for more Kiwi exporters and investors to take the plunge offshore.
But it's going to take a lot more than exposing Kiwis to inspirational speakers for this country's business people and Government to get around to tackling the Asian challenge.
A list of objectives developed by two foundation working parties read like lists from yesteryear.
Don't blame them. Blame those that failed to put timeframes and scorecards around the previous objectives to ensure they were achieved by Government Ministers, agencies, business organisations and others.
Unfortunately, the 2007 objectives also read a bit like they had gone through a Government-blender or been subject to too much self-censorship.
Acceptable enough to a third-term Cabinet that is running out of political capital and notoriously gun shy.
But not bold enough to get the blood running or, in fact, tempt the PM and her team to make a serious difference.
Which is a pity because the Asian economic game will not stand still while we gear up to walk.
Beca Group's Gavin Cormack hit the nail on the head with his challenge to the Government to wipe tax on overseas earnings for companies who had retained earnings overseas for future development, change the rules so those Kiwis on transfer overseas for less than two years did not face a double whammy on tax and make the immigration procedure faster to attract talent.
Cormack's point is that NZ needs to make some urgent changes so that firms can be competitive in Asia against those from other countries that do not face the same impediments.
In a later interview, Long affirmed the Chinese ("who look forward to an exciting future as the country continues on a high growth path spurred by economic development, a growing middle-class and globalisation") will increasingly value our dairy products and will want to come here in increasing numbers to enjoy fresh air, play golf and other leisure pursuits. The future is "bright" if we work hard to cement our competitive advantage.
But he also makes the point that China, with whom we are negotiating a bilateral free trade deal, wants Fonterra to grow and compete in China so that its companies can learn by competing domestically against our global giant as they prepare to go offshore and trade product.
As secretary-general of the influential Boao Forum, Long's is a powerful voice. Not just among China's movers and shakers.
But also among the other regional power players who trek to his forum on Hainan Island each year to make connections and get an insight into the personalities and trends that are cementing Asia as this century's economic power house.
He's also the former chief trade negotiator who master-minded China's entry to the World Trade Organisation and retains a soft spot for NZ as it was the first Western nation to negotiate a WTO accession protocol with the world's most populous nation.
Long isolated three particular industries: high-quality food, education and tourism as areas which made NZ attractive to China and Asia despite our small population base and distance from markets.
But US economist Clyde Prestowitz - who also spoke at the summit's gala dinner - cautioned that a concentration on these particular competitive strengths would not achieve sufficient productivity gains to take our economy to a new level. Particularly as China drives further up the value chain with its own high-end products, a factor that Long conceded.
Prestowitz is president of the Washington-based Economic Strategy Institute and recently wrote Three Billion New Capitalists - The great shift of wealth and power to Asia. He has an excellent track record in identifying economic tipping points.
His contention is NZ needs to follow the successful models of other small nations such as Finland, Denmark and Ireland, which have taken an innovative approach to developing new products, made economic development a national cause and managed their currencies and tax platforms to ensure they stayed competitive.
This was not news to the many present who were supporters of the Catching the Knowledge Wave drive in the early 2000s. More a sorrowful reminder that NZ has failed to take up the baton, drive forward collectively with sufficient common purpose towards economic success with a pragmatic approach to tax and the dollar.
Prestowitz's comments caused a ripple among those trying to make headway against a stronger dollar.
He contends the over-valued US dollar (some 70 per cent so he says) will face a major correction as Asian nations reach the point where they cut back their funding of the United States' deficit. This could spell the end of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency and lead to major flow-on effects such as (over time) a new Asian currency.
He said later he expected that correction to take place within the next five years - although maybe not by as big a percentage as 70 per cent. These tipping points can come out of nowhere - after all few predicted the Asia crisis of 1997.
Prestowitz and Long agree there will be an economic day of reckoning as Asian nations decide to retain more of their savings for internal investment, rather than propping up the American deficit.
Long points to a desire on China's part to invest in paying its workforce more, health and welfare initiatives and environmental clean-ups.
The positive view that Long has towards New Zealand will help smooth the way for this country as it continues to build its "Asian profile".
And what should excite NZ business is the strong economic projections for the future.
Whether we like it or not, the train left the station long ago. We need to get up a head of steam if we are to catch up.
