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Home / Business / Economy

Highest January migration gain in six years

NZPA
28 Feb, 2010 11:15 PM4 mins to read

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Photo / David White.

Photo / David White.

The number of people arriving permanently or long term in this country exceeded the number of departures by 2500 in January, the highest net gain for a January month since 2004.

The increase was driven by 1700, or 30 percent, fewer permanent and long term (PLT) departures to Australia, compared
to January 2009, Statistics New Zealand said.

PLT arrivals overall were down 400 from January 2009.

Seasonally adjusted, PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 2000 in January 2010, up from 1700 in December, and similar to the average of 1900 since February 2009.

In January 2010 there was a net inflow of 1100 migrants from Britain, with 400 each from India and China. The net outflow of 2100 migrants to Australia was the lowest for a January month since 2004, down from 4100 in both January 2008 and 2009, SNZ said.

The net migration gain for the year to January was 22,600, up from 4500 in the January 2009 year, and the highest annual net migration total since the May 2004 year.

The rise in the net figure was due to fewer departures, with the 64,400 departures down 20,200 or 24 percent from the January 2009 year.

The 86,000 arrivals in the same period was down 2200 or 2 percent from a year earlier.

Stronger migration will be evaluated by Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, who releases his quarterly review of monetary policy next week.

The property market has shown a more tepid recovery than expected by Bollard, who has stood by his intention not to raise interest rates until about the middle of the year - later than some economists expect.

"Net migration remains a key source of support for the economic cycle," said Philip Borkin, economist at Goldman Sachs JBWere.

"The key to watch over the coming 12 months is whether we see a reversal in departures to Australia given the Australian economy's outperformance."

ANZ economist Mark Smith said the immigration numbers were continuing to add to population growth, and was "helping stabilise the (weakening) housing market and boost labour supply."

"As yet the stronger Australian economy is not attracting more kiwis across the Tasman. We do note, however, that we have seen a trough in departures to Australia," said Smith.

"Given the divergences between the two economies a turnaround in departures remains a key risk going forward. However, there is still a large buffer and it will take a material turn-around in departures to turn strong net migration inflows around."

Smith said stronger visitor arrivals and the low number of short-term resident departures were a signal that the "long required for rebalancing of the NZ economy is underway".

The number of overseas visitors arriving for short term stays in January reached record levels for the month, as visitor numbers from Australia continued at high levels.

Statistics New Zealand said today 256,700 visitors arrived in January, up 5 per cent from a year earlier, and above the previous January high of 253,500 in 2008.

Visitor arrivals had risen in eight of the past 10 months, compared with the same months a year earlier. The number of visitors arrivals from Australia rose 13,000 or 16 per cent in January, compared to a year earlier, continuing large monthly rises that started last April.

It was the first time since September 2007 that visitor arrivals from Japan had improved, when compared with the same month of the previous year, but numbers from Japan were still only almost half the peak of 16,000 in January 2005, SNZ said.

Visitors from China were down 4800 or 34 per cent, affected by the timing of Chinese New Year.

Visitor numbers from Australia have more than doubled since the January 2000 year, while the 79,600 from Japan was less than half the annual high of 174,800 recorded in the January 2003 year.

During January, New Zealand residents left on 106,800 short term overseas trips, up 1700 or 2 per cent from January 2009. For the year to January the number of departures dropped 2 per cent to 1.92m.


ADDITIONAL REPORTING / NZ HERALD STAFF/BUSINESSWIRE

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