Finance Minister Bill English during his Budget update presentation at the Treasury in Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Finance Minister Bill English during his Budget update presentation at the Treasury in Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Richard Forgan is a partner in PwC's consulting practice. He was formerly Deputy Secretary, Budget & Public Services at the Treasury and the inaugural executive director of the National Infrastructure Unit. He answers five questions on Treasury's forecast announced today.
Can the Government's surplus be sustained?
The Treasury is forecastinga small operating deficit (c. $200m) in the year to June 2016, although the Minister of Finance himself was more optimistic about maintaining the surplus. Returning to significant surpluses will require the stronger growth now forecast for 2018/19 (above 3 per cent), but in principle, maintaining the surplus in the longer run should be entirely possible. The language is changing a bit - "broadly in balance" seems to be the new [Back-in-the-] Black.
Is there room for tax cuts prior to 2017 election?
The Minister of Finance has kept the $2.5 billion allowance for new spending in Budget 17 (and this is built into the forecasts). This will give him both a buffer against a downturn, and choices about tax cuts that year.
Richard Forgan, PwC consulating partner and former Deputy Secretary, Budget & Public Services at the Treasury. Photo / Supplied
How have world events and their effects on the global economy impacted New Zealand's economy?
Global economic growth has slowed, and growth in China in particular is expected to continue to trend down, which has knock-on effects across much of South East Asia and Australia. On the other hand, low oil prices and a depreciating dollar have been positive for New Zealand's exports (up 10 per cent for non-dairy exports in the last 12 months). Net migration has also played a large part in recent economic performance, with New Zealand relatively more attractive compared to other countries.
The target remains the same - Net Debt to GDP ratio of 20 per cent. Peak debt has increased (26.5 per cent to 27.7 per cent) and moved back a year to 2018. This is principally due to increases in capital expenditure, and lower than expected tax revenues (a consequence of continued low inflation). But, this is still "in control".
Should Govt boost infrastructure spend to stimulate the economy?
I would encourage increased spending on high quality infrastructure that will benefit NZ in the long run. But much less keen on a big spend-up just to create short-term stimulus from more construction work.
