Pipfruit exports this year are expected to be as much as 10 per cent down on pre-season estimates but, ironically, apple growers' earnings prospects are brighter after last year's European "bloodbath".
Pipfruit New Zealand chief executive Peter Beaven said prices in the European Union - which takes about 70 percent of apple exports - were stronger and the dollar had weakened.
Last year about 334,000 tonnes of pipfruit (more than 18 million cases, mostly apples) was exported.
A variety of factors - such as oversupply and a high exchange rate - depressed returns from sales in Europe.
"The EU last year was a bloodbath for all fruit," Beaven said yesterday.
He said the average return to apple growers was just $15 to $16 for each 18kg case and trees were pulled out as a result.
That contributed to a pre-season export crop estimate for this year of 280,000 tonnes (15.5 million cases).
However, Beaven said it now looked like "we're going to come up anything up to 10 per cent short of that.
"What growers found this year, when they started picking, was that they completed their first pick and there just wasn't a lot of fruit left on the trees."
Year-to-year variations were not uncommon.
"You can get quite a high natural drop, which reduces the number of apples that are sitting on the tree."
Also, growers might have been more selective about the fruit they sent to the pack house.
Stronger EU prices now reflected the reduced supply of fruit and that, coupled with the fall in the dollar, probably meant "better than break-even" returns for apple growers this year.
"And, if the dollar continues trending downwards, then we can be quite optimistic about next year as well."
However, Beaven wasn't prepared to predict this season's average return per case.
