Signs of recovery in jobs market

Although still in the negatives, NZ employers' expectations are moving upwards.

The picture is slightly brighter for job seekers, who should see a moderately improved labour market in the final quarter of 2009, a survey says today.

A greater percentage of employers are telling researchers they will hold on to the staff they have, suggesting some stability in the next three months.

The survey of 720 New Zealand employers by Manpower shows hiring intentions for the next three months remain in negative territory, with the Net Employment Outlook at -1 per cent.

However, the outlook does indicate that employer confidence may be on the rise after two successive quarters of moderate improvement. This is due to a rise in the proportion of employers planning to increase hiring (14 per cent, up from 12 per cent in Q.3) and a fall in the number who plan to decrease hiring (13 per cent, compared to 18 per cent in Q.3).

Hiring intentions are still weaker than a year ago, however, when the Net Employment Outlook, adjusted for seasonal variations, stood at +8 per cent.

"While hiring plans remain sluggish, this is an encouraging sign that the New Zealand job market is stabilising. Businesses and employees have faced some tough times in the past year, but it appears that the employer forecasts are a bit more optimistic than they have been for some time now," said Lincoln Crawley, Manpower managing director.

Certain industries are faring better than others: 18 per cent of manufacturing industry sector employers plan to increase hiring (up from 12 per cent in Q.3) and while only 13 per cent of finance, insurance & retail sector employers are set to increase their hiring, just five per cent plan a decrease.

Meanwhile, 24 per cent of transportation & utilities sector employers intend to increase hiring in the fourth quarter (up from 20 per cent in Q3), making this one of the strongest industry sector forecasts for the fourth quarter.

The job market's recovery may not be evenly spread across the nation, however, with Christchurch facing a Net Employment Outlook of -10 per cent.

Canterbury is the only region where employers are projecting a slower hiring pace than in the previous quarter.

Employers in Auckland (-2 per cent) and Wellington, (-2 per cent) on the other hand, are anticipating a moderately improved hiring climate in comparison to the third quarter.