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Home / Business / Economy / Employment

Risk aversion creeps in to corporates

NZ Herald
16 Nov, 2011 04:30 PM4 mins to read

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US President Barack Obama's pledge to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal through Congress ahead of next year's presidential elections will buoy NZ business. Photo / AP

US President Barack Obama's pledge to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal through Congress ahead of next year's presidential elections will buoy NZ business. Photo / AP

Simpson Grierson's Kevin Jaffe points to a "new wave of caution" dampening new business activity as corporates once again become more risk-averse in the wake of the European turmoil.

Jaffe, the law firm's chairman and a corporate partner providing strategic advice on high-profile and complex deals, suggests major mergers and acquisitions work may slow down again with the prospect of renewed international recession.

His corporate team advised on a number of recapitalisation deals after the Global Financial Crisis. He says corporates are now risk-averse. "New Zealand is part of the global economy; if it slows so will we."

Global instability is affecting major projects. Governments are loath to commit major capital expenditure until they gauge the extent that future revenue flows and business investment flows have slowed. "This is having an effect on all businesses that depend on capital investment," according to a major engineering firm.

"Major infrastructure developments by SOEs that are potentially up for the mixed ownership model after the election have gone quiet," says the boss of an infrastructure firm. "Opportunities continue to be consented but indications are that there is little appetite for investment at this time."

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This is underlined by NZ Council for Infrastructure Development chief executive Stephen Selwood who says substantial funding constraints and the gap between long-term planning and implementation will severely impact the infrastructure pipeline, causing significant productivity loss across industry.

But there will still be plenty of work for the professionals - lawyers, accountants, bankers and sharebrokers - if National is re-elected and embarks on plans to partially privatise three power companies and Solid Energy, and further sell-down its share in Air New Zealand.

Two-thirds of respondents agree with the mixed-ownership model which would see the Government retain 51 per cent of shares and sell the others off. But 25 per cent said they "could go further with private ownership".

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Almost two-thirds support the notion SOEs should be "engines of growth" by investing in strategic alliances overseas. Twenty-six per cent were against.

EMA chief executive Kim Campell says uncertainty, political and economic rigor mortis will continue to affect all sectors of the world's commercial landscape. "But the poor performance in the United States and the eurozone will be compensated for by good performances from Australia and Asia."

US President Barack Obama's pledge to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal through Congress ahead of next year's presidential elections will buoy NZ business. Eighty-nine per cent of CEOs say the Government should go ahead with the TPP (a multilateral free trade deal that will integrate major Asian-Pacific economies) if there is a net economic benefit to New Zealand.

Anzco Foods chairman Sir Graeme Harrison says Obama's pledge - and the move by the Japanese to enter TPP - is "great news for NZ's agricultural exporters".

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Irrespective of the uncertain international environment, 70 per cent of chief executives who have responded to the Herald survey say their firms expect to sport revenue growth in 2010.

Domestically exposed industries - like the real estate sector and motoring sales, are picking that after several tough years, the recent uplift will continue. "What's happening around the world concerns me, though in New Zealand and in our industry, we are getting on with the job," says Barfoot and Thompson director Peter Thompson.

He said property prices in Auckland had been relatively static in the past two years, but there was now a floor under the real estate sector.

Martin Simons, who is chief executive - New Zealand Media for Herald publisher APN, observes that although the fundamentals have remained sound the Global Financial Crisis and subsequent economic fallout has triggered a massive change in consumer and corporate behaviour. "Savings are at 20-year highs (in Australia) and advertising markets have fallen sharply. We do not expect to see a material change to these conditions in 2012."

Movie industry chief John Barnett, who heads up South Pacific Pictures, is optimistic. "The global economy will be rocky and New Zealand will be caught in the wash but we're in an industry which has certain advantages in these times."

But despite the global outlook, chief executives were broadly optimistic.

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A company chairman observed macro factors in New Zealand were very positive.

He cited the growing savings levels, capital markets growth, taxation at reasonably competitive levels, stable employment, dairy and primary sectors which were insulated to a degree from downturn, and political stability - "subject to unworkable coalition risks."

"This provides a rare window in which, when added to our low corruption levels and ease of doing business, NZ can look to capitalise, to attract value, adding new business growth, attracting business and entrepreneurial migrants and returning Kiwis."

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