New figures show employment rates are continuing to plummet, indicating New Zealand is in for a tough time next year.
In its Monthly Monitor, economic forecaster Berl says total employment in September was 40,000 lower than a year earlier. It says there has been a steady decline in growth over
the past two-to-three years following a high interest rate/high exchange rate policy that has put the squeeze on employment in any goods and services that are internationally tradable.
Most of the jobs shed have been from the export processing, manufacturing and construction sectors.
Chief economist Ganesh Nana says it is worrying that there is no growth amongst those industries as they should be at the forefront of New Zealand's economic recovery.
"It suggests that the recovery if it comes, is going to be a relatively long, slow, hard grind rather than anything spectacular."
He says the infrastructure projects promised to drive the economic recovery are a myth.
He says there should be a surge in jobs, given the number of projects tabled by the Government, such as National's much-hyped broadband plan, but many of the projects were actually already on the books and are nothing new. Nana says employment figures show only a moderate increase in the construction sector.
Nana says unfortunately there really is not much to look forward to.
Berl's report also contains a forecast of the short-to-medium term prospects for the Auckland economy. It says the outlook is best described as unstable.
The next few months are expected to be better than the first half of 2009, but there will be little to celebrate with:
* a sombre export picture for manufacturing
* modest, at best, employment growth
* a subdued outlook for retail trade
* import growth slightly above national
* net inward migration gains
* moderate house price growth
* growth in house building activity, and
* accommodation guest nights treading water.
- NEWSTALK ZB
