KEY POINTS:
Falling net migration could take the pressure off housing only to turn the heat up on wages, says the National Bank.
Statistics New Zealand said seasonally adjusted net permanent and long-term migration totalled 140 people in April.
The latest migration rate was down from 630 in March, continuing
a weaker trend of 520 and 410 people in February and January respectively.
Net migration numbers had been more than 1000 a month between June and December last year.
National Bank economist Philip Borkin said slowing migration was positive news for the Reserve Bank because it would provide less support for the housing market and consumer spending.
Slowing net migration could take at least six to 12 months to take pressure off the economy. "On the other hand, it is a double-edged sword," he said. "The labour market remains incredibly tight and the unemployment rate is near historical lows."
The result of a continued tight labour market was upward pressure on wages.
"Why net migration has come off over the last few months has been a pick-up in departures and you can only speculate what are the reasons behind that," Borkin said.
A seasonally adjusted 6570 permanent or long-term arrivals in April was down from 7130 the previous month.
However, the permanent departure total of 6430 people, although consistent with last month, was up on recent history.
Departures to Asia, Europe and the Americas for the year ending April were down 13 per cent, 1.8 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively but departures to Australia - the largest destination country - were up 10 per cent to 37,177 for the year.
Meanwhile, visitor arrivals in April of people intending to stay less than a year were up 0.8 per cent on last year at 193,229 people and up 2.1 per cent for the year at 2.4 million.
"You'd expect where the currency was that you'd start to see the number of tourists arriving in the country to drop off but we're seeing the opposite," Borkin said.
Visitor numbers from Japan continued to fall, down 9.3 per cent in April, although Tourism New Zealand chief executive George Hickton said major wholesalers in Japan were reporting increased bookings.
"There are some signs in Japan that we may be getting towards the bottom so that might enable things to start to turn around a bit because it's still an important market for us."
Slowing Down
* A net 140 long-term arrivals during April.
* Expected to ease pressure on housing and spending.
* Slower migration may put pressure on wages.
