Flu fears prove a headache for business planning

The prospect of bird flu triggering a global pandemic has business leaders preparing for the day when half the workforce goes home sick.

But contingency planning for an as-yet-unseen enemy is not simple.

Paul Jarvie, manager of occupational health and safety at the Employers and Manufacturers Association, says there is a "bit of wheel spinning" as some employers do more than needed.
Jarvie says it's important to be thinking about the risks but employers need to avoid a knee-jerk reaction.

Murray Jack, chief executive of Deloitte, has said a sceptical approach to the prospect of a flu pandemic by business, possibly influenced by an uneventful "Y2K" despite predictions of widespread computer failure in 2000, could leave firms open to avoidable losses.

Government information publicly available to help assess the risks include the Planning Guide for Infrastructure Providers and the New Zealand Influenza Pandemic Action Plan Version 14.

Jarvie said the problem with such resources is that they are constantly being altered. "Even the Government is up to version 14." He said medium to large-sized companies generally have the resources needed to build contingency plans, while many small-scale employers will simply "roll with the punches".

Larger companies say they are looking at the issue.

Fletcher Building group risk manager Rob Frost says bird flu has been labelled a key risk and staff have been asking questions.

The company has set aside part of its intranet site to provide employees with information and "to assure them that we recognise the risk and we are doing something about it".

Frost says each business unit within the group is updating its continuity plan and the company's IT department is investigating how some staff could work from home.

But the best solution for some units could be simply to "shut up shop" for two weeks.

He says staff illness, caring for sick relatives and looking after children sent home from closed schools could result in up to 50 per cent of staff being away from work.

The company is looking at buying stocks of anti-viral medication Tamiflu but could not obtain any.

However, the effectiveness of Tamiflu against an as yet non-existent human strain of bird-flu is debatable.

David Hansen, general manager of operations at Auckland International Airport, says the question of whether to use Tamiflu may not be answered until something actually happens.

He says an internal company group has been set up to examine the risks posed by a pandemic to both the business and its staff, and a wider stakeholders' group has been formed incorporating airport-based companies such as airlines, flight caterers and retail operations.

"Nobody knows exactly how it's going to unfold, if it does," he says.

"So there has to be a significant element of flexibility in whatever anybody does."

Changed working patterns forced on companies trying to keep businesses running by allowing staff to work from home could be an added challenge for communications provider Telecom. It would have to cope with its own staff shortages, plus a potential spike in network demand.

Telecom spokesman Phil Love says that if necessary, communications traffic would be prioritised, with emergency services and Government agencies top of the list.

"We're taking all precautions to ensure that it [the network] does cope but you never know the extent of the bird flu scenario."

PREPARING FOR THE WORST

* Large companies are looking at how bird flu may affect them

* A number have set up internal groups to examine the risks

* Deloitte has warned a sceptical approach could lead to avoidable losses

* Telecom is considering the effect a jump in the number of people working from home could have on its network