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Home / Business / Economy / Employment

Editorial: Five big take-outs from all the Reserve Bank news

NZ Herald
11 Nov, 2020 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr during his press conference after announcing they have left the official cash rate unchanged. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr during his press conference after announcing they have left the official cash rate unchanged. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Editorial

EDITORIAL:

Yesterday was a busy day for Reserve Bank news - and a big one for fans of financial acronyms.

The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) gave us the MPS, the OCR, FLPs and LVRs ... and new forecasts for GDP.

Confused? You're probably not alone.

And it's not just the jargon. There are some conflicting forces at play, making for an extremely difficult balancing act.

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To keep it simple here are five key takeouts from yesterday's news.

1) We're not out of the woods yet.

"The Covid-19 shock to the economy is very large and persistent, and inflation and employment will remain below the remit targets for a prolonged period," the RBNZ said in its latest monetary policy statement (MPS).

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"These outcomes are despite the current significant fiscal and monetary stimulus."

In other words, the RBNZ still sees recession risk from Covid-19 and closed borders as very serious.

2) There is more economic stimulus on the way.

The RBNZ left the official cash the (OCR) on hold.

But despite a run of better than expected economic news, a booming housing market and the prospect of a Covid-19 vaccine - it will deliver more monetary policy stimulus.

It confirmed plans to introduce a new tool to stimulate the economy - called Funding for Lending (FLP).

3) Mortgage rates and deposit rates are likely to fall further

FLP would effectively offer commercial banks a discounted retail rate which would lower their funding costs and enable them to cut mortgage rates further.

That's not going to thrill those already up in arms about soaring house prices.

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The FLP will also reduce bank reliance on taking deposits to fund their lending, so it may see deposit rates fall (sorry savers).

4) Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) restrictions are back

The RBNZ will reintroduce LVRs in March to head off financial stability risk it sees building due to an increase in highly leveraged borrowers.

LVRs are not technically put in place to cool house price inflation, but they may well have that effect longer term.

In the short term though, expect to see a flurry of buying as investors and first home buyers try to get in ahead of the new rules.

5) Negative interest rates still aren't off the table - but look less likely

All the good news of late has had some effect on the RBNZ's outlook, even though they haven't pushed that point too hard.

The RBNZ has boosted its forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and other economic indicators.

Its forward projections for the official cash rate now suggest it is less likely to cut again in February or April - at least that's the way money markets are reading it.

The Reserve Bank always faces a difficult balancing act in assessing the strength of the economy.

Now we face a situation where some parts of the economy are booming and others are in dire straits.

Covid variables run the gamut from another community outbreak locking down the country and hammering the economy, through to a miracle cure unleashing a surge of inflationary growth.

Things can change fast - so you can bet this won't be the end of acronyms.

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