NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy / Employment

Economy Hub: Full employment - is this as good as it gets?

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
14 Nov, 2018 03:55 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

What does the lowest unemployment rate in 10 years really mean for the economy? Photo / 123RF

What does the lowest unemployment rate in 10 years really mean for the economy? Photo / 123RF

In theory New Zealand has hit full employment.

At 3.9 per cent the unemployment rate is the lowest in 10 years and below the Government's four per cent target.

But what does that really mean? Not everyone has a job and many of those in work still struggle with job security and low wages.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Full employment - or the more technical term "maximum sustainable employment" - is essentially the lowest level of unemployment an economy can cope with before it starts cause problems with labour shortages curbing growth and wage growth pushing inflation too high.

That makes it an important value judgment.

It is a call that will be in the spotlight as the Reserve Bank looks to include it explicitly in its monetary policy settings next year.

Early last year Labour promised to reduce unemployment to four per cent in its first term.

The economy has achieved that sooner than expected but without much uplift in wage growth.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Perhaps that means the four per cent target is now too high.

But then what about business owners who are already complaining of skills shortages and rising costs.

A recent survey of the construction sector - by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors - found that 84 per cent of respondents identified skills shortages as a factor holding back activity.

Overall low unemployment was a good problem to have, said NZIER principal economist Christina Leung.

Discover more

Energy

Good news for drivers - petrol prices due to fall

31 Oct 04:40 AM
Opinion

At the crossroads: Why the economic outlook is so murky

07 Nov 03:20 AM
Banking and finance

ASB pundits head into summer on upbeat note

18 Nov 04:00 PM
Opinion

Norman Gemmell: Do we need a second Treasury?

19 Nov 04:00 PM

Although labour shortages were starting to constrain growth and add costs in some sectors, it was preferable to a situation where there wasn't enough demand and people were losing their jobs, she said.

Leung noted that while we would all like to see higher wages, we need to see them driven productivity rather than just a tight labour supply if we want to avoid the inflation trap.

But she was hopeful that the tighter labour market might drive productivity growth over time if businesses were incentivised to invest in new technology and machinery in the absence of cheap labour.

Meanwhile we were definitely seeing the casualisation of the workforce with the rise of contract work and jobs like Uber driving, Leung said.

"This flexibility is a double-edged sword," she said.

It was great for people like students, who weren't so worried about job security, and it allowed employers to take more risks in hiring staff.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"However for workers seeking certainty of income, that casualisation is not as favourable," she said.

There were supply side solutions to labour shortages such as immigration, upskilling more people or finding more workers in under-represented demographics – such as older people.

But this required some longer-term thinking about what skills New Zealand really required.

Finance minister Grant Robertson has recognised this and put a lot of emphasis on a long-term strategy with establishment of the Future of Work Commission.

Meanwhile though the Reserve Bank faces an interesting call next year on where it sees the maximum sustainable rate of employment sitting in the context of its inflation challenges.

When employment was added to the Reserve Bank's monetary policy considerations it was generally assumed that it would put extra downward pressure on rates as policy would need stimulate employment growth.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But if the job market gets much tighter then, in theory, employment considerations could start to put upward pressure on interest rates.

It certainly seems unlikely (and undesirable) that we'd see the Reserve Bank enacting policy to try and create unemployment.

In the end the concept of full employment is a choice. It's a trade-off based on how much inflation pressure the Bank is prepared to tolerate.

So right now with core inflation low and wage inflation sluggish, it looks like we can afford to aim lower than four per cent unemployment.

Business owners may disagree. There is no doubt that the tight labour market in some sectors is creating serious problems and risks.

It's a complex dilemma.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Maximum sustainable employment is determined by a wide range of economic factors beyond monetary policy," Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr said when the new Policy Targets Agreement was announced in March.

He and his team have clearly given this a lot of thought - next year we will see how they put it into practice.

And no doubt we'll all watch closely for signs of that long-overdue wage growth.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Employment

Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

22 Jun 07:00 AM
Business|economy

Thinking of retiring? Nearly one in two Kiwis still working when they turn 65

10 Jun 07:00 AM
Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: Cheer up, Kiwis - and go shopping

07 Jun 05:00 PM

Help for those helping hardest-hit

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Employment

Premium
Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

22 Jun 07:00 AM

OPINION: This recovery is making us sweat, but that might be a good thing in the long run.

Thinking of retiring? Nearly one in two Kiwis still working when they turn 65

Thinking of retiring? Nearly one in two Kiwis still working when they turn 65

10 Jun 07:00 AM
Premium
Liam Dann: Cheer up, Kiwis - and go shopping

Liam Dann: Cheer up, Kiwis - and go shopping

07 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
First look at $1b warehouse hub by James Kirkpatrick Group

First look at $1b warehouse hub by James Kirkpatrick Group

07 Jun 12:00 AM
How a Timaru mum of three budding chefs stretched her grocery shop
sponsored

How a Timaru mum of three budding chefs stretched her grocery shop

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP