Aussie job ads rise hints at end of downturn

Job advertisements in Australia increased in August for the first time in 16 months as businesses prepared for a recovery in the economy, a survey says.

The ANZ survey released yesterday found there were 4.1 per cent more job ads in newspapers and on the internet, seasonally adjusted, in August, at an average of 130,326 a week.

It followed a 1.7 per cent fall in July.

The number of ads in newspapers rose by 5.5 per cent in August, while ads on the internet rose by 4 per cent.

ANZ Banking Group acting chief economist Warren Hogan said the rise in job ads during August was the first monthly rise since April 2008 and the strongest rate of monthly growth since December 2007.

"These data provide the best evidence we have received to date that the labour market (and the economy generally) are about to enter the recovery phase of this downturn," Hogan said.

"Indeed, the main driver of increasing unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth and high levels of participation.

"Once the recovery commences, this process is likely to happen in reverse, with work hours for existing employees creeping up again first, before total employment numbers begin to grow."

However, total jobs ads were down 48.1 per cent compared with August 2008. Hogan said it may take time before there was a sustained period of job growth.

ANZ has forecast a loss of 15,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate to rise 0.2 percentage points to 6 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly labour force report on Thursday.

"In the near term, we expect to see some continued deterioration in the labour market, due to the low level of demand for new labour, some residual job shedding and continuing strong growth in labour supply," Hogan said.

The rate of deterioration in the jobs market would not be as severe as forecast in the first half of 2009 as the Australian economy continued to strengthen more than previously estimated, Hogan said.

The Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, following an expansion of 0.4 per cent in the March quarter, ABS data showed last week.

In the federal budget for 2009-10, handed down on May 12, the Department of Treasury had forecast the jobless rate to peak at 8.5 per cent in the 2010-11 financial year.

"Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly in some of our largest employing industries such as retail trade, health services, government and construction," he said.

"We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.25 per cent in mid 2010."

The rise in job ads in the ANZ survey followed the Olivier Job index which measures vacant ads on commercial jobs sites. The index, released on Sunday, increased by 2.43 per cent in August.

It was the first rise in the Olivier Job index since May 2008.

- AAP