Aus job ads fall for 15th straight month

Australian jobs advertisements fell in July for the fifteenth consecutive month as employers continued to shun hiring new staff.

But the rate of decline has slowed, in a tentative sign that job ads may soon stabilise.

The ANZ survey released on Monday found job ads in newspapers and on the internet fell 1.7 per cent, seasonally adjusted, in July to an average of 125,207 a week.

The result followed a 6.7 per cent decline in June.

The number of ads in newspapers fell by 0.4 per cent in in July, while ads on the internet fell by 1.8 per cent.

Total job ads were down 51.9 per cent over the year and down 54.2 per cent since employment peaked in April 2008, showing demand for workers remained at recessionary levels, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan said.

"So far, the difference between the current downturn and a recession, however, has been that weak demand for labour has not translated into widespread labour shedding, with most employers choosing to cut back on staff working hours rather than reducing overall headcount," he said.

"Indeed, the main driver of increasing unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth and high levels of participation."

"Somewhat encouragingly however, the trend pace of decline in job ads has eased for the past five months, a tentative sign that job ads may soon stabilise and that businesses may stop cutting back on hiring intentions," added Hogan.

But this may not be enough to prevent job shedding in the near term, with employment expected to contract "moderately" over the rest of calendar 2009.

ANZ expects employment to fall by 18,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases it monthly labour force report on Thursday.

But Hogan was optimistic that the rate decline in employment will be as harsh as was forecast six months ago because the local economy had been stronger than expected.

"Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly for our largest employer, the retail sector," he said.

"Furthermore, the recent rebound in business confidence and conditions suggests that employers may not be as pressed to cut back on labour (and investment) costs.

"We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.5 per cent in mid 2010."

The ANZ survey came after the Olivier job index, which measures vacant ads on commercial job sites and was released on Sunday, fell by just 0.41 per cent in July following a decline of 0.85 per cent in June.

"This is a steady result, you could call it bumping along the bottom," director of the Olivier Group Robert Olivier said.

The median market forecasts for the ABS labour force data due later this week are for a fall in total employment of 18,000, and an unemployment rate of six per cent.

Australia's unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to a seasonally adjusted 5.8 per cent in June, while total employment fell by 21,400 jobs.

- AAP