NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • Deloitte Fast 50
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

<EM>Colin James:</EM> Long-term prospects better served by loss

20 Sep, 2005 09:05 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save
    Share this article

When Don Brash and John Key have got over their loss, if that is what it turns out to be, they might thank their lucky stars. If they were strategising for their party's long-term health, this could be the election to lose.

Brash and Key are both men in a hurry, Brash because of his age and Key because that is the way he tackles life. Both will benefit from an enforced learning break.

Key needs to work on economic principles to give his policy prescription more durable foundations. Parliament is not a dealing room.

Brash needs to widen his understanding of his country. Across tracts of policy, he did not manage much more than slogans - indeed, some of the official policy was not much better.

Brash is a better man than the campaign showed. He has had to focus on learning to be a party leader and campaigner, which necessarily obscured the long view. Now he can find out how the country and the Government works - acquire the knowledge Bill English has, for example.

Labour's survival under the tax and Treaty of Waitangi assault showed the electoral value of a set of political values, by which voters can sense a party and accept or reject what they sense.

National's two king-hit policy jabs of treaty and tax worked on voter resentment and "me-first" rather than reflecting a set of values by which the country and the economy would be managed. Without that compass, Brash was enticed into a cynical promise on September 9 to reduce the petrol tax, reversing a rejection only a fortnight earlier. That tested the limit of voters' credulousness.

Contrast English's education policies: founded in principle, buttressed with research and on-the-ground discussions, rich in detail.

Now imagine the Brash-Key combination in charge just as the economy is slowing, the balance of payments deficit is reaching banana republic levels, the currency falling and inflation way above 3 per cent. There is a real danger of mistakes and missteps and then blame.

There is no doubting their ability to learn on the job. Brash has studiously worked his way into his various jobs. Key is a brilliant learner and was star of the campaign. But the ninth and seventh floors of the Beehive are not places to learn on the job if the going gets rough.

Assuming the Government goes Labour's way, Brash and Key can watch Helen Clark and Michael Cullen navigate the choppy economic waters ahead and cop any voter blame. And they can understudy for their parts without the pressure of a looming election.

Here is a curriculum. Clark and Cullen could also usefully study it, too, if they want a fourth term or even just to survive a third term with honour.

* Household debt is high. Yes, household assets have risen, too, but much of that is paper value - house prices out of line with rents and so bound for correction. How does the Government correct the imbalance of savings and debt?

* Is there a case for a balance-sheet debt-equity approach to the Government's finances, as Key implied in his willingness to lift Government debt? Some economists think so. But if there is such a case, should it be based on forcing better financial discipline or constraining public services - the "strategic deficit" Cullen charged National with intending - or on an ideal ratio for optimum economic efficiency?

* What is the optimal tradeoff between tax levels and public service levels? And how much is this a political calculation - votes in the bank - or one of economic efficiency?

* How over the long term can adequate physical and cyberspace infrastructure be assured and resources allocated? What is the balance between the 1970s administrative approach which still pervades much of the policy and a more flexible, market-driven approach?

* What is the desirable level of fundamental science? The Clark Governments have lifted Government funding in real terms but not much as a percentage of GDP. They have also begun to rebalance funding into basic science for our staple, land-based industries. But they are far happier buying hip operations. There is not much evidence Brash and Key have science much higher in their policy priorities.

* Does "choice" deliver better social outcomes - and so a more skilled workforce and a richer country? Or is there a role for an active Government, especially at pre-school and school level?

* What is to be done with state-owned enterprises? Key modestly planned to sell down 20 per cent of each SOE, to improve governance. This would have had mum-and-dad investor appeal but was junked because asset sales were deemed by campaign moguls to be a vote-killer. Key might study how to resurrect the idea. Cullen might want to re-examine his rigid Labour ideology.

* What is the appropriate regulatory environment? In the 1990s business applauded Ruth Richardson but lost the argument with the public who, from 1993 on, demonstrated by voting in large numbers for Winston Peters and Jim Anderton that they wanted a readjustment. Is the criterion solely economic efficiency, as Brash's speeches implied, or more complex?

This is not an exhaustive curriculum but it is enough to keep National's stars busy awhile. And give Labour's food for thought.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save
    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Shares

'Uncertainty around US tariffs': Market reacts with cautious trading

Economy

US President Trump slaps 15% tariff on NZ goods

Economy

Consumer confidence drops in July, inflation expectations rise


Sponsored

Kiss cams and passion cohorts: how brands get famous in culture

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Recommended for you

Community trust gives struggling Hastings youth a second chance
Hawkes Bay Today

Community trust gives struggling Hastings youth a second chance

Wairoa to transport landfill waste to Ōmarunui with remaining cyclone funds
Hawkes Bay Today

Wairoa to transport landfill waste to Ōmarunui with remaining cyclone funds

Some Hawke’s Bay shops may stop offering PayWave due to surcharge ban: Retail advocate
Hawkes Bay Today

Some Hawke’s Bay shops may stop offering PayWave due to surcharge ban: Retail advocate

Bergerson hoping for special weekend with Bradman and Bosson
Racing

Bergerson hoping for special weekend with Bradman and Bosson

Pests catching pests: Ferrets v rabbits in Queenstown
The Country

Pests catching pests: Ferrets v rabbits in Queenstown

Shihad frontman recalls time on tour with 'lovely' Ozzy Osbourne
Entertainment

Shihad frontman recalls time on tour with 'lovely' Ozzy Osbourne



Latest from Economy

Premium
Premium
'Uncertainty around US tariffs': Market reacts with cautious trading
Shares

'Uncertainty around US tariffs': Market reacts with cautious trading

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare shares fell 2.17% because of the tariff increase.

01 Aug 06:25 AM
US President Trump slaps 15% tariff on NZ goods
Economy

US President Trump slaps 15% tariff on NZ goods

01 Aug 02:17 AM
Consumer confidence drops in July, inflation expectations rise
Economy

Consumer confidence drops in July, inflation expectations rise

31 Jul 11:58 PM


Kiss cams and passion cohorts: how brands get famous in culture
Sponsored

Kiss cams and passion cohorts: how brands get famous in culture

01 Aug 12:26 AM

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
All Access. All in one subscription. From $2 per week
Subscribe now

All Access Weekly

From $2 per week
Pay just
$15.75
$2
per week ongoing
Subscribe now
BEST VALUE

All Access Annual

Pay just
$449
$49
per year ongoing
Subscribe now
Learn more
30
TOP
search by queryly Advanced Search