That's not something any of us really wants to contemplate right now.
But it is the harsh reality facing the UK as it heads into its second Covid Christmas with coronavirus case numbers spiking to record levels.
It's something of an understatement to say the outlook from here remains highly uncertain.
But the resilience of the local economy has been a reassuring constant through the pandemic thus far.
Two key pieces of economic data released last week emphasised this yet again.
On Wednesday Treasury published its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update.
It was decidedly rosy despite the economic damage done by the Delta outbreak.
A much stronger economic and fiscal outlook means the Crown accounts return to surplus a full three years earlier, in 2022/23, than forecast back at May's Budget.
Net Government debt will peak at lower levels than feared, both in dollar terms and as a
share of the economy. It is expected to top out at 40.1 per cent of GDP in 2023 before falling to 30.2 per cent in 2026.
That gives the Finance Minister more money to spend if required and he has boosted his 2022 Budget operating allowance to $6 billion.
If all this seems optimistic it is worth noting that Treasury significantly overestimated how bad the Delta hit to GDP would be.
On Thursday StatsNZ revealed that Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 3.7 per cent in the September 2021 quarter.
It was still the second-largest fall since the current series began in 1986 (after the June 2020 slump), but it was a much stronger performance than expected.
Treasury had forecast a 6 per cent fall and the Reserve Bank 7 per cent.
The market had priced a fall of 4.1 per cent.
The Kiwi dollar rallied by about half a US cent to US67.85c on the back of the news.
It looks increasingly like the economy has the momentum to outperform expectations for a while yet.
Economists say one of the reasons for this is that we have adapted to living with the pandemic.
"The economy was more operational than last year. Activity was shifted to online, and trading continued despite physical stores being closed," said Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.
Omicron looks increasingly like it could delay border openings and slow the global recovery which can seem almost too much to cope with after such a tough year.
It could prove a real test of our resolve, our social cohesion and our mental strength to see this pandemic through to the end.
So it is reassuring to think that our economy, at least, remains well placed to handle whatever may come.
