NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

China's economic story a cliff-hanger

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
12 Apr, 2015 05:00 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The central Government is allowing new bond issues but may soon demand more dramatic measures such as privatisation. Photo / Thinkstock

The central Government is allowing new bond issues but may soon demand more dramatic measures such as privatisation. Photo / Thinkstock

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Learn more
Shanghai stock market has soared 68% in the past six months despite the concerns of some economists.

'Young and fabulous,' it says on the teenager's T-shirt, in big gold letters. If it is meant to be ironic, it isn't. She thinks she's a pop star as she and her friends dance in sync before the giant video screen in Beijing's Sanlitun shopping precinct.

And why wouldn't she. There's a DJ, strobing coloured lights in all directions, pop art sculptures and pop-up food trucks scatted around the outdoor mall which is home to Emporio Armani and all the big luxury chain stores you could think to name. This is young and fabulous China.

Here at the heart of the capital, just a short walk from the ancient Forbidden City, is a world that seems divorced from history, politics and even concerns of an economic slowdown.

Of course around the next corner you can always find the kind of grim poverty that rattles fresh-eyed New Zealanders.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There's nothing new about these contrasts. The glitz and the grime.

These are the dynamics of China in the 21st century.

A shift from 7.5 per cent to 7 per cent GDP growth this year surely won't change this.

But how about 6.8 per cent? Or lower. There are plenty of bearish signs that the Chinese economic slowdown could land on the downside.

How about the falling property market? Cranes and ghost skyscrapers still dot the skylines of China's big cities, yet prices are already falling.

Could a property slump stall the banking system as it did in the US last decade? Or do Chinese rules about minimum deposits (30 per cent for first homes, 60 per cent for second) give it a safety buffer.

Discover more

Business

Super fails to dent Oz's state pension bill

10 Apr 05:00 PM
Agribusiness

Trendy nut a hard one to crack

10 Apr 05:00 PM
Opinion

Paul Little: Wearied by flight of the consorts

11 Apr 05:00 PM
New Zealand

Unhappy hour for bar tab deal

11 Apr 05:00 PM

What about local government debt? One trillion RMB's worth of which must be rolled over this year. Massive infrastructure investment in the past decade, not all of it well allocated or likely to deliver a return, must be paid for some day.

The central Government is allowing new bond issues but may soon demand more dramatic measures such as privatisation.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There may be vested interests that resist these moves. China's economic equation can never be divorced from politics.

Moves to stamp out corruption and recentralise power over regional economies are a very real part of the rebalancing act.

How about a stock market crash? The Shanghai stock market has soared 68 per cent in the past six months.

By any measure that links prices with earnings this looks like a bubble. Yet retail investor enthusiasm shows no sign of letting up. If anything it is spilling over into other markets like Hong Kong and further afield.

Could a market crash stall economic growth or is China's market safer than America's

For now banks are still banks and brokers are brokers. The financial structure is more like the US before the ill-fated removal of the Glass-Steagall Act. But that could change.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

What about shadow banking, which could undermine all that best practice regulation.

Everyone, including Chinese officials, is highly attuned to these risks.

The managed transition to a "new normal" - a slower, more sustainable growth rate, led by consumption and a higher waged service sector - is no easy process. That's as much a part of the official story as it is part of the bearish views being delivered to high end Western corporates and investors by boutique financial analysts.

In a week in Beijing I've met people from both ends of the spectrum - businessmen, economists, financial market analysts and journalists. They tell a similar story of dramatic change but with differing degrees of optimism or, increasingly, pessimism.

For the young telco entrepreneur in central Beijing the boom is still in full flush. His challenges are those driven by high growth.

Wages for skilled tech workers are still rising 15 to 20 per cent year on year, he says.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

But some of the economists have become extremely bearish about the chances of a soft landing - whatever that is.

If you're a manufacturer or construction worker in an outlying province or second tier city, things could get tough in the next few years.

The infrastructure and manufacturing slowdown doesn't bode well for hard commodity prices. If Australia is rattled by this, it should be.

But consumer confidence is high in the big cities. The success of this great economic transition won't be measured by the pain in the provinces, it will be measured by the spending and consumption of the middle classes. That's good news for New Zealand - probably.

We can never know the answers to how China's economic story will play out. It's vital, though, as New Zealand's reliance on China grows, that we understand the questions.

This week I head to Shanghai, after a brief stopover in the second tier city of Tianjin (just 14 million people). I'll collect more expert views and no doubt come away with even more questions.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Hopefully I'll bring some sort of order to it all when I return. I'll certainly be bringing back some colourful stories.

Liam Dann is travelling as a recipient of the New Zealand China Council Media Award.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Business|economy

Meat and dairy continue to drive food price inflation, Stats NZ data shows

16 Jun 11:28 PM
Economy

Why Kiwi businesses are cautiously optimistic about the future

16 Jun 11:01 PM
Premium
Property

South Island's largest supermarket to open early and under $50m

16 Jun 05:00 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Meat and dairy continue to drive food price inflation, Stats NZ data shows

Meat and dairy continue to drive food price inflation, Stats NZ data shows

16 Jun 11:28 PM

Food prices continue to rise but the rent increases are now the lowest in a decade.

Why Kiwi businesses are cautiously optimistic about the future

Why Kiwi businesses are cautiously optimistic about the future

16 Jun 11:01 PM
Premium
South Island's largest supermarket to open early and under $50m

South Island's largest supermarket to open early and under $50m

16 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

Reserve Bank blocks media from talk by OCR committee member Prasanna Gai

15 Jun 08:32 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP