NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Bernard Hickey: Global economy slip sliding away

Bernard Hickey
By Bernard Hickey
Columnist·Herald on Sunday·
26 Nov, 2016 04:00 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Donald Trump looks likely to dump the globalisation contract.

Donald Trump looks likely to dump the globalisation contract.

Bernard Hickey
Opinion by Bernard Hickey
Bernard is an economics columnist for the NZ Herald
Learn more

Like any building with concrete cancer, trust in a big idea can seem very solid right up until the moment of collapse.

Trust among the general populace in globalisation has been ebbing away over the past 10 years or so since the Global Financial Crisis, but it never seemed like it was about to collapse - until now.

The election of Donald Trump in the US appears to have been that moment of collapse. Suddenly, it seems, everyone is questioning everything about a 30-year long trend towards ever-freer movement of goods, services, capital and people around an increasingly interconnected world. Trump's first act as US President will be to tear up the next big act of globalisation - the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

This modern version of globalisation kicked off in the mid-1980s with the reforms unleashed by British PM Margaret Thatcher and the end of communism in 1989. New Zealand's version was unleashed by the Lange-Douglas Government of 1984 and it has been full steam ahead ever since.

Both sides of politics and the broad populace essentially agreed on a social contract. It goes something like this: controls on imports and exports of goods, services and capital would be removed and currencies would be freed to float. This would generate an extra boost to economic growth and the benefits would be broadly shared around in the form of higher incomes, cheaper stuff and more vibrant and diverse societies.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The idea was the inevitable disruptions would be followed by stability and a better life.

The whole idea got turbo-charged in 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organisation and became the factory of the world. It got some nitrous oxide from our point of view with the 2008 Free Trade Agreement, although New Zealand was not alone in feeling an acceleration as China and North Asia became a lot more enmeshed in the global capital flows, tourism and migration.

The big assumption underpinning this social contract is that most people would be broadly better off because of these massive changes, and the few who weren't better off would be somehow protected or cushioned or compensated and it would all work out better in the end.

This question of who would benefit from stronger economic growth is a crucial one because it has now been long enough to know the answer.

A chart on incomes between 1988 and 2008 produced by World Bank Economist Branko Milanovic shows real incomes for poor people in emerging countries such as China rose 60-80 per cent, as did incomes for the richest 2 per cent of the globe.

Discover more

Opinion

Bernard Hickey: Work rate drives wages

05 Nov 04:00 PM
Opinion

Bernard Hickey: 5 ways Trump could hurt us

12 Nov 04:00 PM
Opinion

Bernard Hickey: Get ready for Trump thump

19 Nov 04:00 PM
Opinion

Bernard Hickey: Show us the money, John

03 Dec 04:00 PM

However, the poor-to-middle income groups of America and Europe have not benefited much, or in some cases went backwards. Milanovic calculates more than half of the actual gains in dollar terms (not percentage terms) of the economic growth went to the richest 5 per cent of the world's population.

The assumption at the beginning of globalisation was a rising tide would lift all boats. That didn't happen.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The world is demonstrably better off overall but big chunks of the population in the developed democracies of the world missed out.

Now these people are revolting. The GFC was the first sign that something was wrong in the bowels of the globalisation process and the reaction of central banks and Governments simply confirmed the unfairness and flaws in the system for people who were already sceptical.

Bankers were bailed out and given bonuses while benefits for globalisation's losers were cut.

New Zealand has done a much better job of cushioning the blows and spreading the benefits than America in particular, or even Britain and Europe.

But the same erosion of trust is happening here, even if there is no collapse yet. New Zealand First's poll ratings are an obvious sign, along with the changing stances of other politicians closer to the centre who can sense the cracks appearing.

The default position for many now is to distrust apparently rootless multinational companies who have played countries off against each other to reduce their tax bills and generate ever-bigger profits for their equally rootless investors.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Prime Minister John Key has his ear close to the ground and this week he told Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to win back the trust of the globalised masses by paying its taxes.

"I think if they don't, the same people who are its users will wake up one day and say, 'Why do I have to pay my tax if this company is not going to?'" Key said.

It's a bit late for that now. People are wide awake. Key hopes the social contract supporting globalisation here can be repaired with a few tweaks and some good PR.

The trouble is globalisation is global. It only works when everyone globally believes in that social contract, and that is broken.

President-elect Trump is now acting to tear up that contract. Brexit voters did the same. Italy, France and Germany are set for elections in the next year that will also be votes of confidence over the European version of globalisation.

For many who benefited, this shock seemed to come out of the clear blue sky, but it shouldn't have. The pressure has been building for years.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Business|economy

AI could add $3.4b to NZ economy – if we can address areas where we lag

24 Jun 03:00 AM
Energy

Auditor-General warns of investment need for electricity reliability

24 Jun 12:55 AM
Premium
Politics

Treasury 'got it wrong' predicting KiwiRail to fall short of financial target, Winston Peters says

23 Jun 05:00 PM

Kaibosh gets a clean-energy boost in the fight against food waste

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
AI could add $3.4b to NZ economy – if we can address areas where we lag

AI could add $3.4b to NZ economy – if we can address areas where we lag

24 Jun 03:00 AM

New Zealand is behind in some areas, such as AI uptake and skills.

Auditor-General warns of investment need for electricity reliability

Auditor-General warns of investment need for electricity reliability

24 Jun 12:55 AM
Premium
Treasury 'got it wrong' predicting KiwiRail to fall short of financial target, Winston Peters says

Treasury 'got it wrong' predicting KiwiRail to fall short of financial target, Winston Peters says

23 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
How NZ exporters can seize the moment amid US-China trade disruptions

How NZ exporters can seize the moment amid US-China trade disruptions

23 Jun 05:27 AM
Engage and explore one of the most remote places on Earth in comfort and style
sponsored

Engage and explore one of the most remote places on Earth in comfort and style

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP