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Home / Business

Covid-19 coronavirus: NZ broadband use pulls back from the brink - but online learning surge to come

Chris Keall
By Chris Keall
Technology Editor/Senior Business Writer·NZ Herald·
31 Mar, 2020 06:59 PM3 mins to read

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There are 58 new confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in New Zealand, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield says.

The good news: after surging ever closer to its maximum capacity during the first days of the lockdown, NZ broadband traffic has eased this week (see chart below).

Chorus
Chorus

The bad: The worst strain on networks is probably yet to come as many schools and universities have taken their holidays early, and won't get back into gear - with intensive online learning - until later this month.

READ MORE:
• Covid-19: As others suspend guidance, Chorus reaffirms
• Covid-19: Telco fight looms over 'wall of bad debt'
•
Vodafone hit by more broadband problems as Chorus clocks record daytime data use

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Last week, as white-collar workers began working from home en-masse, traffic on Chorus's network peaked at 3.03 terabits a second, which Chorus says is the equivalent to 600,000 movies being streamed at once.

The spike in traffic came despite Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and YouTube all take steps to reduce their bit rate (25 per cent, in Netflix' case), sacrificing a degree of picture quality to help ease data traffic.

READ MORE:
• Covid-19: Chorus to help around half of homes with no broadband

Before various records were set over the past week amid the lockdown frenzy, the previous high was 2.6Tbps during the Rugby World Cup last year.

Chorus said 3.03Tbps is still "comfortably within" its maximum peak capacity of 3.5Tbps.

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But broadband was still up 34 per cent above where it sat before the Covid-19 outbreak, and getting ever-closer to the maximum as people often swapped email or chatting across the office for much more bandwith-intensive video chats - often through home setups that lack the efficiencies of corporate networks - which are getting bandwidth upgrades to better-handle the remote-connection surge, in many cases.

• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website

Smaller central North Island network operator Ultrafast Fibre reported similar upward trends last week.

But Chorus says peak traffic on its last night peaked at 2.56Tbps yesterday, continuing this week's trend of easing traffic, despite Auckland University beginning online learning.

Discover more

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How fat could Chorus' divvy get? Analysts take their punts

25 Feb 04:41 AM
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As others suspend guidance, Chorus reaffirms

26 Mar 08:02 PM
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Broadband traffic keeps rising - getting closer to ceiling

27 Mar 08:51 PM
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NCEA online-learning service made free for lockdown, 1000 teachers sign on to new platform

28 Mar 11:06 PM

More strain could be ahead, however, Of the big three universities (by enrollments), the other two, AUT and Massey, have both gone into early semester breaks across their various campuses, and won't kick off online learning until later this month. The same goes for many high schools who opted to take their term-one holiday break early.

While many stocks have been buffeted by the outbreak, Chorus reaffirmed its 2020 earnings guidance last week, and its shares recently hit an all-time high of $7.61 on March 6 amid resiliant demand for broadband, and the promise of a fatter dividend.

after a huge week we seem to be moving into a new norm pic.twitter.com/HHfvAXGoyO

— Kurt Rodgers (@kurtprodgers) March 30, 2020

It has since pulled back, closing yesteday at $6.89, but is still up 17.3 per cent for the year - although some analysts caution there is regulatory and competive uncertainty ahead.

The government, which progressively bought shares in Chorus as one of the mechanisms for funding the public-private UFB rollout, is currently the largest shareholder with its 57 per cent stake - albeit with non-voting stock.

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