If there is a silver lining to the tourism-sector clouds of Sars and the Iraq war, it is that the travel-curbing events have hit during the industry's off-season.
Tourism Industry Association chief executive John Moriarty said yesterday he expected visitor arrivals for April, May and June wouldbe down on the same months last year as travellers, wary of the war, terrorism and the Sars virus, delayed plans to holiday in New Zealand.
Overseas visitors spent $6.1 billion in New Zealand last year.
The tourism sector accounts for about 10 per cent of gross domestic product and sustains one job in every 10.
So while a tourism slump poses a threat to the economy, the good news for the industry is that the latest global upheaval has hit as local tourism operators enter their traditional quiet season.
During the winter months, tourism operators are more reliant on domestic travellers than international visitors.
About 70 per cent of the 2 million overseas visitors coming to New Zealand each year arrive during the peak summer months.
Moriarty said the falloff in arrivals should turn around by next summer provided there was a speedy resolution to the Iraq war.
"If it [the war] is over and done with by August or September, we would expect a normal summer season."
He said "normal" meant growth in arrival numbers of between 5 and 6 per cent on the previous year and increase in the amount of money spent by visitors of 9-to-10 per cent.
"I don't think we're being overly ambitious to expect that."
