KEY POINTS:
Climate change due to global warming will help determine a new crop of winners and losers - in tourism.
And a report from Deutsche Bank Research says some of the biggest polluters will be among the biggest winners - with New Zealand among the countries which will initially
be better off.
The Deutsche Bank report said that the countries responsible for the most greenhouse gas emissions will be least influenced by the predicted storms, droughts or rising seas.
By 2030 tourist destinations such as Malta, Cyprus, Austria, Greece, the Bahamas and Jamaica will be adversely affected, and tourism in Asia, Africa and Latin America will also suffer.
But the bank's model shows Canada, the United States, Belgium, Germany and the Baltic countries will benefit as tourist destinations.
New Zealand - which relies on tourists travelling long distances from the northern hemisphere - will benefit but ranks closer to France and Italy, where some regions will be too hot and dry while other parts will become attractive.
"France and Italy will be slightly favoured, due to the diversified structure of their tourism offerings," Eric Heymann, of Frankfurt, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Research, told the Yale Global website.
"Canada, New Zealand and the USA are the only three further countries outside Europe whose tourist industries will be on the winning side."
"Like the north European countries, New Zealand is positioning itself as a `green' holiday destination," the report said. "The isolated geographical location of the country is, however, problematic."
It will have beneficial effects from climate change up to 2030, with increasing temperatures and lower rainfall.
But rising fuel costs and limits placed on travel in order to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions will start having a negative effect on the economies of existing tourism nations.
Tourism was an important economic factor in New Zealand, equivalent to 11 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), particularly adventure holidays in the South Island.
The North Island had striking landscapes and Auckland was an attractive destination for city tourists, but cultural tours "are still of little importance".
"In developing nations which are resource-poor and tourist-dependent, this will widen the gap between the wealthy and the poor".
The regulatory and indirect consequences of climate change will have a negative influence on tourism in the whole of Oceania, though the tourists visiting New Zealand include a high proportion travelling relatively short distances from Australia and Asia.
"The island states in the South Pacific ... are particularly reliant on tourism," Mr Heymann said. "If tourists stay away from them, the economic setbacks are extremely serious."
Reduced tourism income for economic development in many emerging markets, including the island states in the South Pacific would be not only due to worsening climatic conditions.
"If prices for air trips increase, for example, because of their inclusion in emissions trading and if (as a result of that) fewer people travel to faraway destinations, the negative economic impact would be perceptible," Mr Heymann said.
"If these changes are irreversible, then the developed world must help these countries develop sustainable economies."
In Australia, rising temperatures would affect beach and water sport holidays on the Queensland and New South Wales coasts. The problem of high UV radiation already existed and future coral bleaching would reduce the attractiveness of the Great Barrier Reef to tourists.
But the report said that up to 2030 the consequences could still be manageable - possibly even increasing visitor numbers - with a change in marketing tactics, along the lines of "Come and see it before it's too late!"
- NZPA
